The fall in economic growth, according to the Central Bank, can add up to 4.5-4.8% in 2015 if the average price of oil will be at $ 60 / barrel, and “effect on the economies of other negative factors” to continue . In 2016, the recession will continue, but the rate of decline of GDP will be reduced to 1%, the report said.
«Fiscal policy implemented within the framework of fiscal rules, will be somewhat mitigate the negative effect of the sharp drop in oil prices. The possibility of fiscal stimulus in a sharp decline in government revenues and limited availability of sources of financing the deficit will be provided with the accumulated funds of sovereign funds “- follows from the document.
The new assessment of the dynamics of the economy is much more pessimistic compared to the stress scenario presented in the first half of November, in the “Guidelines for monetary policy in the 2015-2017 years.” It was assumed decline in oil prices to $ 60 / barrel by the end of 2015. In the case of the fall of the Central Bank waited fall in GDP growth in 2015 to 3,5% -4%.
The reduction of the economy will be temporary and already in 2017 may be replaced by a rapid recovery growth, even if oil prices remain to “stress” level over the next three years. Economy adapts to the changing external environment: the depreciation of the ruble will lead to increased import substitution and increase the competitiveness of Russian exports. As a result, in 2017 the economic growth rate can be up to 5,5-5,8%.
The baseline scenario of the Central Bank, in contrast to the stress, does not imply a fall in GDP in 2015. According to him, the price of oil in 2015 will be $ 95, and the growth of the economy will be zero. The official forecast of Ministry of Economic Development worse – it assumes a recession: GDP fell by 0.8% at an annual average rate of US dollar 49 rubles. and inflation of 7.5%. The forecast is calculated based on an oil price of $ 80 per barrel.
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