Economists made a forecast for the Russian currency in 2017
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Dollar sets record after record against the ruble. Fortunately, so far in our favor. According to the results of trading on the Moscow stock exchange rate of the American currency for the first half of the year fell below 60 roubles – to a mark of 59.83 ruble. Last time below the dollar fell as much as last summer and it was worth it then 11 cents cheaper. Simultaneously, the Euro fell to the level of 62.7 ruble. This figure was also the lowest since July 2015, when the cost of European currency fell to the level of 61,98 ruble.
photo: Kirill Iskoldsky
the Strengthening of the ruble against the background of rising prices for “black gold” – Brent crude oil rose to $ 56,65 per barrel. Since the beginning of 2017, the ruble has risen against the dollar by almost 22%, showing better results among all the world’s currencies. Similar growth was shown only the Brazilian real, exchange rate of which against the dollar has increased by 21%. However, interviewed by “MK” experts warn that a strong strengthening of the Russian currency in the coming year can be expected.
Nikita Isaev, Director of the Institute of contemporary economy:
“Psychological for people mark, when the dollar begins with the number 5, should not mislead. Unfortunately, the causes of the strengthening of the ruble, all lie in the same plane following the price of oil. The rise in oil prices takes place against the background of last year’s frosts in OPEC production and a number not included in the cartel countries. To predict the price of oil for the next period and the entire 2017 will be on the results of the actions of the new U.S. President Donald trump and just after his assumption of office on 20 January when it will be the policy of the state against the American shale oil exporters. This will form the balance of supply and demand in the world market. I predict the average annual price of oil 50-55$ per barrel and the ruble average of 67 rubles to the dollar.”
Valery Polkhovsky analyst SC FOREX CLUB:
“the Ruble strengthened under the influence of several factors. First, oil prices are near 18-month highs and have potential for growth. Yesterday the representatives of Kuwait announced the reduction of production by 130 thousand barrels, according to the agreement. However, Saudi Arabia had informed its customers in Asia about their intention to reduce the offer. Until we get signals that OPEC will take seriously the agreement of 30 November. This will keep the barrel to about $ 60, at least. Second, the dollar is currently weakening along the entire global currency market. There is some uncertainty in anticipation of the inauguration of Donald trump.
However, the strengthening of the ruble is unlikely to continue. Representatives of the Central Bank gave to understand that 59 is the pain threshold for the economy. The strengthening of the national currency below this level could trigger intervention by the Central Bank to maintain a lower rate and replenishment of foreign exchange reserves. Given that in terms of the weakening of the ruble, the Central Bank has unlimited resource, it will actually cool the ardor of buyers of the Russian currency. Most likely, we are still entrenched in the range of 59 to 61 rubles to the dollar.”
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