Media learned about the budget option for lack of $ 25 per barrel of Urals – RBC

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The Ministry of economy not ready variants budget projections for oil prices of $ 25 per barrel. The basic version was designed from the greater cost of oil, which may affect the income of the population

The Ministry of Economy is not finished version of budget projections for oil prices Urals $ 25. Payments Office, which have been used to discuss the government’s anti-crisis plan based on forecast that the average annual price of oil will be $ 40 per barrel, according to the newspaper “Kommersant».

According to the newspaper, such calculations do not allow to keep the budget deficit at 5.1% of the border. In this situation, the government will have to make further cuts in public spending and public sector revenues. This will lead to increased recession of GDP, which is fully in the Ministry of Economics forecasts are not reflected.

According to the publication, the price of oil at $ 40 a barrel will allow to count on the stabilization of the rate of economic decline. At $ 25, inflation will not be 8-8.5% and 8.8-9.2%, investment declined by 6.7%, and real wages will be reduced to 4.8% per year (compared to 3.9% in . Ministry of Economy of the baseline scenario)

the current rate of the ruble to the dollar Economy Ministry considers undervalued: the average annual rate in the baseline forecast will be 68.2 rubles ./$ (ie $ 40 per barrel, with a monotonic increase in oil ruble strengthened by the end of the year to $ 66-67 rubles ./$ ), in the conservative – 75.7 rubles ./$ (ie be slightly strengthened, even with some decrease in the oil price)

if you have a large international reserves. Bank of a further reduction of the current account in 2017 should not cause new strong collapse of the course, however, reset this indicator faces strong volatility of the ruble in a year and increases the risks of change of exchange rate of the Central Bank policy.