«Oil of Russia», 06.08.15, Moscow, 09:15 The continued weakening of the ruble amid falling oil prices casts doubt the ability to exit the authorities expected the Russian economy out of recession in 2016, it follows from a survey of economists conducted by the Center of HSE. Experts point to inflation expectations in the industry and the risks to the economic recovery both by the sharp changes of oil prices, and conducted by the Russian Central Bank monetary policy.
August the consensus forecast of 23 analysts surveyed by the Centre for Development HSE, recorded a deterioration in the expectations of the dynamics of GDP this year, slightly, from -3.6% to -3.7% of GDP in 2016 – a more prominent, with 0.9% to + 0.3% GDP. The main factors of the revision of the forecast – a new decline in oil prices and renewed weakening of the ruble. On the results of this year is likely not affected, said the expert, – the economy gained momentum. However, the end of the recession in these estimates is pulled – a third of respondents are now waiting for the recession to continue into next year. The positive dynamics of the GDP in 2016 is based on the assumption that oil prices will go up, but the rate of growth since May, analysts have revised – from $ 68 to $ 65 per barrel.
Saving the exchange rate at current levels (above 62 rubles. per dollar) actually will play the effect of what happened in February – May, the ruble sharply increase the risks of inflation acceleration, warned in the center. The HSE (based on surveys Rosstat) and Egor Gaidar IEP (it is conducting its own investigation of the state of the industry) in July, has already recorded price increases on raw materials and finished products companies. The weakening of the ruble faces a new decrease in the activity of companies associated with imported supplies, using imported raw materials, as well as financial institutions, experts write HSE. Strong volatility in oil prices, according to them, can harm the Russian economy more than keeping them stable at a low level, because it adds uncertainty.
The policy of the Central Bank in this situation at the Center for Development assessed as insufficiently cautious “mode floating rate, designed to deal with the negative impact on the economy of currency shocks is itself a fair shock “. Since May, the weakening of the ruble has worked not only oil, but also the action controller, and given the expected US Fed rate hike in the coming months, Russian companies and banks may face a shortage of currency in the domestic market, says expert at the Center Sergey Pukhov. “The very transition to a floating exchange rate was a shock, then panic racing course should be smaller, but this smoothing injection prevents the geopolitical situation”, – said the head of the laboratory for Financial Studies named Yegor Gaidar IEP Mikhail Khromov. The risk of liquidity shortage overvalued – a schedule of payments on external debt has not changed, and the support of the Central Bank will smooth the situation, and the weakening of the ruble will reduce the demand for imports, the expert said.
As part of the real economy in the HSE expect continued The drop in earnings, which threatens a new wave of layoffs. In the meantime, there is an outflow of the labor force in the primary sector – employment in production for the year increased by 2.3% in the production of oil products – by 3.6% (in the manufacturing industries – above all in the manufacture of electrical equipment – by 1.7 % gain for the rest of the sector is much smaller).
The gain industry from the new weakening of the ruble is unlikely to be noticeable – to expand capacity needs investment, and this, as a rule, purchases became more expensive foreign equipment, reminds Dmitry Polevoy of ING Bank. Effect of weakening the national currency on inflation will depend on the duration of preservation of low exchange rate. While this effect is placed into the corridor, designated the Central Bank: inflation growth at 1% depreciation of 10-15% within three to six months, said the expert. The long-term impact of the devaluation on growth often neutral and in other countries (revenue growth and net exports do not exceed the losses from the initial drop in consumer demand). In the Russian economy, experts write HSE, restore growth hampered by “investment trap” – the business does not see the conditions for the transfer of profits to investment.
Tatiana Edovina
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