The recession in Russia: Sanctions potrebekonomiya, the course – REGNUM

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Moscow, August 14, 2015, 14:10 – REGNUM The recession in Russia in 2015 will deepen in 2016 economic growth will be zero – these are the conclusions of a new study made public by the rating agency Moody’s. Experts interviewed by the correspondent of IA REGNUM August 14 believe that the economic decline is primarily due to capital outflows and Russia’s dependence on the situation on oil markets, and the impact of sanctions on the process minimum, with the objectivity of the major rating agencies raises questions not only in Russia.

Coglasno study Moody’s, the fall in oil prices and the weakening of the ruble increased the risk of deepening the recession in Russia. The forecasts are based on the agency Rosstat data on GDP: they suggest that the recession in the second quarter of 2015 more than doubled – 4.6% after falling 2.2% in the first quarter. This gradual decline in GDP – a unique recession, analysts said Moody’s. The agency predicts that in the whole 2015 the decline of the Russian economy will be 3%, and in 2016 to rely only on zero growth.

Experts Moody’s, among other factors recession allocate international sanctions against Russia: estimates the rating agency, the sanction will cost Russia at 1-1.5% in real GDP until 2020. That is almost half of the expected level of fall in GDP can be regarded as “services” of the sanctions – this conclusion follows from the calculations agency.

«Objectivity»

Meanwhile, the objectivity rating agencies raises serious doubts, and the reasons for them, appeared long before the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West. On the “objectivity” of Western rating agencies at least objectively says the latest crisis, the cause of which was the problem of subprime-credit (ie mortgage lending at high risk) based on the high ratings of assets, not having a any real value, recalls managing partner of consulting Company Heads Alexander Bazykin. «That is why in recent years, the rating agencies are suing the authorities of Western countries and bear huge losses on the settlement of claims. This is when it comes to the actual ratings – it’s reputation, despite the high position of the three agencies (S & amp; P, Moody’s and Fitch) on world markets, a very important thing. So in a situation with our rankings – it is no secret that the decision on the same last downgrade of Russia – politicized, based on tolerance and speculation “, – he said.

At the same time one can not deny the fact that the economy falls, the expert adds. “But the problems are not only related sanctions. Here the old industrial base, and the oil needle, and the outflow of capital, ongoing for years. So, yes, the situation in the Russian economy hard, but the severity based not only and not so much on sanctions, but on domestic issues, sanctions are simply exacerbated, “- emphasizes Bazykin.

Not afraid of sanctions as low demand

Sanctions are not the main cause of the fall of the Russian economy, said the head of analytical department of the Criminal Code “Russian Standard» Sergei sovereign. «The Russian economy is more painful than the sanctions is a continued decline in oil prices and low consumer and investment demand. Consumers clearly switched to economy mode, “- said the expert. At the same time, in his opinion, the economy began to adapt to the current difficulties.

Ministry of Finance and Central Bank policy – and Reality

The foreign rating agencies could not be trusted and “peacetime”, because they are constantly lobbying someone’s interests, experts say Russian School of Management Kirill Linnik, said that in this particular case, with Moody’s forecast on the future of the Russian economy is difficult to disagree. “At the same time the main cause of the recession of the Russian economy is a systemic crisis, not sanctions. Sanctions conveniently cover even bigger problems, “- says Linnik.

According to him, the economic situation is heavy with future trends to deterioration: a record high dependence on exchange rate on oil prices in the forecast fall in prices to 36 dollars / barrel and the first half of 2015 derived from the capital, according to various estimates, from 80 billion to 100 billion dollars. “The behavior of the government does not meet the situation: too soft liberal measures of the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry only cause negative emotions in the majority of businessmen from the real economy and the joy in the camp of the players in the foreign exchange market”, – he concluded.

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