The devaluation of the Chinese currency will not save the ruble – Moskovsky Komsomolets

Yuan “wood” does not help

Today, at 20:48, views: 964

The People’s Bank of China the third consecutive day lowers rate national currency. Since the beginning of the week, he devalued the yuan by 4.6%. In the future, Beijing expects to achieve its inclusion in the basket of global reserve currencies. The experts welcome the steps Beijing. The economy of this country overheating. China needs to gradually reduce the rate of economic growth. High trade surplus will lead to the adverse-shuffling. In turn, the Bank of Russia is confident that, although the first phase of a new financial policy of China will not have a direct influence on the exchange rate in the long term decline of the yuan would lead to stabilization of the Russian currency, and will contribute to its strengthening. Independent experts disagree. The devaluation of the Chinese currency has brought down the price of copper and aluminum, and soon gets up to oil quotations which determine the ruble exchange rate.

Photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Why China would devalue the yuan? It seems to be all over the world dream of a strong own currency, which is the key to economic stability, low inflation and well-being of the population. In the case of China is now the opposite. China’s economy the past 20 years has grown at an unprecedented pace. The increase in GDP in some years reached 40%. As a result, the yuan has strengthened so that local export-oriented enterprises became unprofitable to sell their goods abroad. In the domestic market, they are not in demand. This results in an accumulation and an increase in surplus goods and as a consequence, a significant loss of revenue. Only in July exports from China fell more than 8% on forecasts of 1%. In turn, the trade balance (the difference between income and expenses) declined in July to $ 43 billion, which is one of the worst in recent years.

brought down the yuan, People’s Bank seeks to ensure that exporters returned to its traditional foreign markets, and again started to make a profit. In addition, according to professor at the Higher School of Economics Igor Nikolayev, the devaluation of the yuan would benefit China’s financial system as a whole. “Artificial stabilization mechanism overheated economy will not allow a critical situation”, – the expert believes.

After three rounds of devaluation (August 11 – 1.9%, the 12th – by 1.6%, the 13th – 1.1%) expects Beijing to stop. Total 4.6% is obtained. However, there are indications that China’s State Council demands to increase this figure to 10%.

However, we can not say that Beijing is fully disillusioned in their own currency. In the future he hopes to turn the yuan into hard currency and ensure its inclusion in the basket of global reserve currencies, which now includes the dollar, euro, British pound, the yen and the Swiss franc.

According to analysts of the Central Bank, the fall of the renminbi will not have a direct impact on the situation on the Russian financial market and minimally affect the dynamics of the ruble. At the same time they believe that such a financial policy of China can lead to stabilization of the Russian currency, and will even help to strengthen it.

Experts in the study of the world economy are of the opposite opinion. “A slight devaluation has brought down prices for aluminum and copper, that will be further, yet difficult to say, – said the deputy director of the Institute of National Forecasting Alexander Shirov. – Oil, for which we are paying in dollars on the ruble, the Russian economy as a whole Chinese devaluation in the short term will affect most negatively. The trade turnover between China and Russia in 2015 will fall by 20%, and improvements should be expected ».

The main factor that determines the value of the” wood “, to this day remain quotes black gold. Russia firmly mired in the swamp of oil. This is confirmed by trading on commodity markets on August 13. In the first half of the day the price of oil grew by almost 1%. This allowed the Central Bank to lower the official rate of the dollar to 64 rubles (-1.02), and the euro – up to 71.15 rubles (-1,06).

By the end of trading the price of oil also fell by almost 1 % now and again is a mark of less than $ 50 per barrel. Apparently, the bids will be opened on August 14 the fall of the ruble, which is quite possible, once again renew their own antirecord. In such a situation it is necessary to wait for the Central Bank of concrete decisions, because as the high volatility threatens to increase inflation and painful blow to the national budget, forcing the government to make its next cut, and on the Russian GDP as a whole.