The price of oil for the first time since the beginning of the year fell below $ 50. Mostly to blame Iran, who intends to immediately after the lifting of sanctions to launch 0.5-1 million barrels per day. Experts warn that if prices will hold at current levels for several weeks, oil companies once again talking about the reduction of investment and personnel.
On Monday, oil quotations for the first time since January, fell below the psychological mark of $ 50 per barrel. The price of oil North Sea oil brand Brent (it pegged the cost to it of the Russian Urals) fell to $ 49.85.
The price of a barrel started to decline from the beginning of May, when it stood at about $ 68. Despite the fact that the jumps were both up and down, the overall trend – a decrease. The biggest failure was recorded July 6 (Monday), when oil collapsed from $ 61 to $ 57.
The main factor of pressure on oil prices are now waiting on Iran, which has long warned the market that after the removal of Western sanctions that restrict the export of oil, oil production will begin to actively build up.
On Monday, IRNA news agency reported that in the first week after the lifting of sanctions Iran could increase oil production by 500 thousand. Barrels per day, and a month after the lifting of restrictions – increase by 1 million barrels a day.
Now, Iran produces about 2.85 million barrels per day, up to the level of sanctions daily production was 4.2 million barrels per day.
«Basically put pressure on the oil quotations on the theme of the market’s fears that Iran is capable of at the end of the year to launch a further 0.5-1 million barrels a day – says the analyst of bank” Uralsib “Alexei Kokin. – It should be borne in mind that Iran has reserves of oil tankers (30 million barrels). ”
Thus, according to Kokin, depending on the timing and volume of production capacity in conjunction Iran could throw the market from 1.5% to 2% of the world’s daily oil consumption, which is about 90 million barrels per day. “This will cause even more severe blow to prices”, – experts warn.
The strengthening of the US dollar will also affect the price of oil, said analyst at Rye, Man & amp; Gor Securities Sergei Pigarev. “Given the growth of US GDP, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve in September will raise interest rates, which will further strengthen the US currency and put pressure on the oil quotations,” – says the expert.
In addition, according to Pigareva, the role played by a slowdown in industrial production in China. In this regard, it is expected that oil consumption in China will grow more slowly than expected, or even begin to decline. And China is the second largest oil importer in the world.
«The subsequent behavior of oil prices will largely depend on the mood of speculators, because the volume of futures trading far exceeds the volume of trading physical volumes”, – says Pigarev.
According to experts, prices could fall even lower, but it will be short-term phenomenon: the bottom will be reached at the end of August – September.
«If quotes will hold at current levels a few weeks, we will hear new allegations of reduction of investment and personnel of oil companies “- warns an expert.
According to him, the current price level for the oil industry is unacceptable, because it is unprofitable for most fields except fields with low production costs, such as in Saudi Arabia.
The Russian “Rosneft” has previously stated that already took into account the capacity of Iranian supplies to the world market. 
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