Kudrin called the conditions for a new wave of crisis – RBC

Chairman of the Committee of Civil Initiatives Kudrin

Photo: Nikolai ASMOLOVSKY RBC

The Chairman of the Committee of Civil Initiatives Alexei Kudrin said that Russia’s economic growth will recover in the first or second quarter of 2016, if the conditions are created for a new wave of recession. “Growth will recover in the first or second quarter of next year”, – quotes Kudrin Interfax. “In this regard, I hope that there will be a second wave [of the crisis], when, after some improvement will be a new large, deep recession. I hope this does not happen, “- said ex-finance minister.

However, according to Kudrin, there are scenarios in which the recovery of economic growth in the timeline does not happen. “We depend on the different events that are in a [drop] trigger. This is a profound drop in oil prices, if it goes back to $ 40 [a barrel], it is already noticeable in Russia, it is can cause new complications “, – Kudrin warned.

In addition, the wave of the recession may be trigger new sanctions against Russia if they are introduced. “If the international tensions, again be a new wave of sanctions against Russia. We understand that there may be other sanctions if international tensions will persist and even grow, so we need to understand that this is possible. I repeat: the price of oil or sanctions. If they will not, then I hope that the second wave of the crisis will not be too “, – assured Kudrin.

Earlier, acting Finance Minister Anton Siluanov gave his forecast of the economic situation. He believes that the financial sector has recovered, and after it to happen and overall economic recovery. “We hope that this will happen by the end of this year – early next year,” – said in early July Siluanov.

In June, speaking at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, President Vladimir Putin said that predictions of a deep economic crisis Russia does not come true. “At the end of last year we predicted a deep economic crisis. That did not happen. We have stabilized the situation, put out negative vibrations conditions and confidently go through the period of difficulties “, – said the head of state.

As previously wrote RBC, the first five months of 2015 the volume of production and services decreased by 4% while in May, the fall turned out to six times more than in January – 6.8% versus 1.1%. In February, falling at an annual rate of 3.1% in March – 2.8%, and in April – 5.8%. At the same time, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, the volume of industrial production in Russia in May 2015 fell at an annualized rate of 5.5%. So quickly the index of industrial production has not declined since October 2009. Compared to April 2015 the rate of decline in industrial production accelerated by almost a quarter – from 4.5 to 5,5%.

At the same time, the survey showed that in the second quarter 2015 Russian consumer confidence rose sharply . Calculated Sberbank CIB so-called index Ivanov assessing consumer confidence Russians rose sharply. Integral index went from minus 22% in the first quarter of 2015 to minus 14%. The lowest value of the index accounted for the fourth quarter of 2014 – when it was minus 24%.

The researchers noted that increased all the components of the index – such as those that characterize the attitude of Russians to what is happening in the economy, and reflecting private citizens assess their financial situation.