Experts have called the expiration date of the crisis in Russia – Russian Oil

«Oil of Russia», 07.07.15, Moscow, 19:00 The fall of Russia’s GDP will slow down until the fourth quarter – that is the consensus forecast experts , according to a poll Reuters. Pulling the economy out of recession will be the corporate sector, in contrast to the crisis of 2009

This is no time for consumption

«The bottom” of the crisis is yet to come – this conclusion follows from the June survey of economists Reuters. “The rate of decrease in consumption should be reduced by further disinflation, but investment and industry is expected to more than a deep recession,” – said in a statement. According to the respondents of macroeconomic analysts, slowing GDP decline should not wait before the fourth quarter of 2015.

On average, in the second and third quarters of surveyed economists expect the decline in GDP of 4.1% – and 3.7% in the last quarter of this year. In the survey of the previous month figure of 3.7% of GDP called peak fall and expect to see it in the third quarter. During the first quarter of 2015, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, GDP fell by 2,2%.

Also, revised to the downside estimate of GDP decline in June from 3.3 to 3.5%. At the same time experts expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of investments in June – falling by 8% compared to 7.6% in May – and a slow reduction in retail turnover: from 9.2 to 8,5%.

For consumers this year in general was the worst in 17 years, wrote in their report the experts Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Domestic private consumption, according to Rosstat, in the first quarter declined year on year by 9% – a drop higher than in any quarter of the crisis in 2009. Moreover, the sharpest decline since 1998. The situation is aggravated by the fact that in the first quarter of 2014 consumption grew by a modest 4% – in contrast to 2009, when the decline followed a period of double-digit growth.

Experts Center for Macroeconomic Analysis Alfa Bank suggest that 2015 could mark the end of the consumer model of growth that dominated the economy in 15 years. That consumption was the main driver of growth since 2009: in 2015 it increased by 22% and GDP – only 6%. Also during the years 2008-2014 the share of wages in GDP: from 47 to 52%.

Time for profit

But, despite sanctions, high borrowing costs and reasonable prices oil in 2015 is the best yet in terms of corporate profits. In April, according to Rosstat, the profits of the corporate sector increased by more than 90% over the same period in 2014. This is a consequence of the devaluation, which allowed 47% to compensate for the fall in oil prices, experts write Merrill Lynch.

Olga Volkova Read more on http://www.oilru.com/news/468576/