Russia’s GDP fell more than expected. In the first quarter, which led Rosstat, GDP fell by 2.2% instead of the expected 1.9%. For 15 years the Russian economy has grown by 94%, and it is unclear how much longer it will take to achieve the promised Vladimir Putin of doubling GDP – a problem that has recently again reminded the authorities. Grow in Russia only the mining industry and agriculture.
In the first quarter of Russia’s GDP fell by 2.2% YoY, Rosstat said. The decline of the Russian economy on the results of the first three months was the first time since 2009, from the data service statistics.
«Russia’s GDP in the first quarter 2015 at current prices amounted to 16.565 trillion rubles. The index of physical volume of its relation to the first quarter of 2014 amounted to 97.8%, relative to the fourth quarter of 2014 – 79.3%, “- said the agency.
The results were worse than the Russian economy catechumens Rosstat advanced assessment . Earlier in May, the agency is expected to fall in the GDP 1,9%.
At the same time indicators coincided with the announced in March assessment Ministry of Economic Development (MED).
on the admissibility of the growth in the first quarter demonstrated the fact only two sectors: mining and agriculture. The rest of the economy showed a stagnation or decline, according to the chief economist of FC “Opening” Vladimir Tikhomirov.
So, the volume index of GDP and gross value added in the first quarter grew only in a few areas: in mining (4.9%); in agriculture, hunting and forestry (2.9%); in the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water (1.1%); as well as in government, military security and social insurance (0.3%).
The largest drop in the gross added value Rosstat recorded in household activities (by 9.4% in the first quarter of 2014); Wholesale and retail trade, repair of household goods and transportation (7.6%); in the sphere of other community, social and personal services (6.9%) and fisheries and fish farming (6.8%).
«Indicators mining sector is primarily associated with the devaluation of the ruble, as in this sector set the tone exporters”, – the expert explains. With regard to agriculture, the production of it increased mainly after kontrsanktsy, said Tikhomirov. In his opinion, support to the sector has had a switch in demand for agricultural products in domestic production, and this is especially evident in such sectors as livestock and dairy production.
In other areas the situation is worse, with a particularly strong decline was noted in the sectors related to consumer demand. “Most likely, the trend will continue in the second quarter and I think most of this year, but slows the rate of fall” – sums up the economist. According to forecasts Tikhomirov, the decline in GDP in the second quarter year on year will be 4%.
Officials confirm that the results of the second quarter will be worse on him, according to expectations, have peak of the fall in GDP.
«During the second quarter the situation is statistically worse than the first, there is still a downside. But I think the second quarter will be limited. In general, I think the situation will be better than forecast. The decline will be less than 2,8% », – say above the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev.
According to the head of the Central Bank of Elvira Nabiullina, in contrast to the peak of inflation, “the bottom of the recession is not yet completed.” Dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators point to a further cooling of economic activity, according to the Central Bank. “Although structural factors continue to have a dampening effect on economic growth, decline in output now including cyclical” – believe the Bank of Russia.
Over the past ten years, the negative dynamics of the Russian economy showed only in 2009, when the decline was 7.8%. All last year, the Russian economy showed a slight but steady growth. In the first quarter of 2014 Russia’s GDP grew by 0.6% year on year in the second quarter – by 0.7%, in the third – by 0.9% and in the fourth – by 0.4%. At the end of 2014, GDP grew by 0.6%.
The fact that this year Russia’s GDP will decline, economists no doubt, the question is only in scale.
Forecasts different agencies and organizations in the fall of the Russian economy for 2015 differ by more than 2 percentage points The most pessimistic estimate expressed , former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. He believes that the Russian economy in 2015 will fall by 4%, and one of the key negative factors will be anti-Russian sanctions that take away 1.2% of GDP.
The Russian Central Bank improved their expectations for a fall of GDP from 3.5-4 to 3.2%.
At the moment, the most optimistic expectations for 2015 were in the Ministry of Finance: -2,5%, said at the end of May the head of department Anton Siluanov.
Falling growth rates of the Russian economy even further moves to achieve the task of doubling GDP set by Vladimir Putin in May 2003. However, according to the authorities, it is considered almost completed.
In late March, Secretary to the President, Dmitry Peskov, he said that “the ambitious goal of doubling the GDP, it is probably the de facto could really be done, and she was actually done ».
In turn, Kudrin praised Russia’s economic growth almost 100% in fifteen years. “In order to double, it was necessary to go every year 7.2%. We went this pace. I can say now total figure: from 2000 to 2014, we received approximately 94%. Let no one in 10 years, and 15, but we are close to a doubling of the country’s GDP, “- said he then. 
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