Greece has not dropped the euro and the ruble – Kommersant

The growth of the confrontation in the relations of Greece and the European Union held in suspense almost all investors Monday. The euro has fallen off in the early afternoon by 2%, to $ 1,095. Only in the second half of Friday’s close, he exceeded and reached $ 1,118. Another thing – the debt of Greece, which fell sharply on expectations today refusal to pay the IMF € 1,5 billion. According to Reuters, the country’s two-year bonds fell in price by 16.3 percentage points (p. P.) And their yield soared above the 37.5% per annum. Ten-year bonds fell to 15.5 p. P., And the yield exceeded 15.4% per annum. Instability in southern Europe had a negative impact on the oil market. According to Reuters, the price of European oil prices on the spot market at the beginning of the day fell by 3%, and by the end of trading remained 2% lower than the close of trading on Friday – $ 57.5 per barrel (Brent) and $ 58.9 bbl (Urals). This fact struck on the Russian currency market. Dollar trades at the Moscow stock exchange at the beginning of the day reached 55.76 rubles ./$ , and by the end of trading remains above the level of 55.5 rubles ./$ . The euro in the course of trading reached 62.18 rubles. / €, and by 19:00 stood at 62.08 rubles. / €, exceeding the figure Friday to 80 kopecks.

At the same time, market participants estimate as a low probability of a Greek exit from the euro zone. According to Director of Investment Bank Julius Baer Burkhard Varnholta, there are no legal grounds for exclusion from the monetary union if it was not a unilateral withdrawal from the European Union. The more that the European authorities are well prepared and have all the possibilities to maintain the integrity of the eurozone. Furthermore, such a move would be too destructive and risky for all parties concerned. However, for the Russian currency, such arguments are too weak. According to leading analyst of Nordea Bank Denis Davydov, the tax period is completed, and the external background is not conducive to an increase in investments in ruble assets, especially against the background of weak economic data. According to him, if the will is declared default on Greek debt, we can expect increased sales and growth rate of the ruble to the dollar ./$ 58-60 rubles.

Dmitry Ladigin