The euro first time since New Year holidays fell below 71 rubles. The US dollar is also falling and came close to the mark of 62 rubles. Russian currency helped oil rising in price, as well as the reduction of tension in Ukraine, analysts say. However, the strengthening of the Russian currency may be short-lived.
The euro exchange rate against the Russian ruble dropped below 71 rubles for the first time after the holidays. The last time the European currency was trading below this mark at auction on January 9. In the afternoon, the euro / ruble calculations tomorrow with fixed daily low at around 70.73 rubles per euro. The US currency fell to a mark of 62 rubles, but to break this level it could not yet.
official euro exchange rates as determined by the Central Bank on Tuesday fell by 2.82 ruble to 71.5426 rubles. Dollar exchange rate decreased by 2.42 rubles to 62.6632 rubles.
The cost of the currency basket compared to the weekend and Monday fell by 2.60 rubles, amounting to 66.66 rubles.
The main reason for the ruble was the increase in oil prices, and reduced geopolitical risks. “A number of factors could significantly strengthen the Russian currency. In particular, at a meeting in Norman format arrangements have been made in Ukraine. These agreements in the event of their performance increases the probability of the partial lifting of sanctions against Russia in the next six months. In this entrenched oil above $ 61 per barrel of Brent on the background of a gradual reduction in the supply and, it seems, is not going to dwell on it a hike up – expert BCS Express Ivan Kopeikin.
As the main risk for further recovery continues to advocate the need to repay large foreign currency borrowing by Russian companies in February and March, the expert said.
However, the purchase on the maturity of the external borrowing in the second half of February, is likely to be offset by the sale of exporters’ earnings for tax payments, says Kopeikin. The decision on the peaceful settlement of the crisis in Ukraine has become a powerful impetus for the growth of the Russian currency during Friday’s trading. On the day the US dollar fell from 65.1 rubles to 63 rubles. The euro exchange rate fell to 74.25 rubles to 72 rubles.
support of the Russian currency and have oil quotes. As at 14.17 MSK barrel of Brent crude oil is trading at 61.89 rubles.
Now oil is influenced by several factors supporting prices, analysts say the bank “Uralsib” Alexei Kokin. Firstly, the reduction of exports from Iraq, which is due to the weather in the Gulf dropped by 0.9 million barrels per day. By the way, earlier, market experts say that in order to maintain the price reduction will be sufficient oil production to 1-1.5 billion barrels a day. Secondly – it threatened to stop oil production in Livii.Liviyskaya National Oil Corporation (NOC) just said Monday that due to the production of military conflict may be suspended. As pointed out by NOC, the repetition of attacks on deposits can lead “to the migration of technical personnel of oil fields and oil companies».
«We are experiencing difficulties in ensuring the safety of workers – warns Libyan company. – Operations became almost impossible due to the lack of adequate and safe living conditions for workers ».
In addition, according to Kokin, keep prices at their current level data released on Friday a new report Baker Hughes (one of the leaders of the world oilfield services industry), according to which the number of active drilling rigs in the shale projects in the US only for a week decreased by 8%. By the way, plans to aggressively reduce drilling released and worked in America, the company Apache, which accounts for about 4% of US production. “The fall in oil prices affected the companies’ plans are stronger than the market expected,” – says Kokin.
However, the strong price growth in March should be expected, the analyst said. On the contrary, they are more likely to decline to about the level of $ 55 per barrel.
This is due to the fact that “Iranian” and “Libya” factors too unpredictable and at any moment can be expected recovery in exports of Iraqi oil, and stop production in Libya, on the contrary, can not wait. But the head of the Russian state company “Rosneft” Igor Sechin, in an interview with Financial Times said that the preservation of a number of oil projects due to falling prices, eventually lead to their rostu.Po him, the market fundamentalists believe that the oil price will recover to $ 60 80 per barrel and then “will be beneficial to drill wells, the world needs.” But if the price of oil will continue to be “distorted”, many projects will be preserved, and eventually the price will rise “up to $ 90-110 or even higher».
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