The final consumption and net exports have allowed the Russian economy to grow by 0.6% in 2014, showing the detailed GDP statistics released yesterday by Rosstat. It also shows that the Ministry of Economy calculations made on the eve overstate the rate of fall of import and understate the rate of contraction of exports in 2014, and with respect to the forecast for 2015.
In 2014, the added value increased in 7 of the 18 basic activities in the Russian economy (including net taxes on products), whereas in 2013, she grew up in 11 of them should be updated from Rosstat statistics on production and use of GDP. Positive but slowing growth was observed in agriculture, processing, trade, financial activities and households. However, households have reduced the growth rate of its economic activity significantly – to 2.7% from 12.2% in 2013, according to Rosstat. The only type of activity, where in 2014 detected acceleration value-added production, – health and social services – from 0.7% to 1%.
The obvious structural changes are detected in the use of GDP – the share of fixed capital amid falling investment declined to 20.4% from 21.6% in 2013, the share of final consumption of households increased to 52.7% (1.1 percentage points, p. p.) and net exports (trade surplus) – up to 6.8% (0.9 p. p.). As a result, the main positive contribution to the increase of the Russian economy by 0.6% in 2014, made the final consumption and net exports. But if in the first case, it fell by more than twice, the second – twice increased.
Meanwhile, on the eve of the corresponding estimates made by the Ministry of Economy markedly (1.5 p. P. 1 instead of n. N. To Rosstat) overstate the contribution of net exports to economic growth in 2014. Reason – in the Ministry after the publication of the data of the Central Bank and the Federal Customs Service estimated that exports in 2014 fell by only 0.7% (-2% to Rosstat), while imports – by 7.7% (-6.8%, respectively). Discover while 0.5% GDP growth in 2014 Alexei Ulyukayev economists agencies allowed stocks, the negative contribution to the economic growth was estimated at 1.5% (0.8% Rosstat).
Thus, the Ministry of Economy predicted a sharp increase in the contribution of foreign trade surplus (up 6.7%) at the continuing fall in prices for 93% of Russian exports are likely to greatly exaggerated (see. “Kommersant” on February 2). In fact, forecasters department in 2015 with some assumptions modeled economic crisis in 2009 (see. Chart). One can only assume that the real drop in final consumption is less than the forecasts of the Ministry, and the decline in investment – great. However, because of the strong decline in exports contribution to foreign trade surplus in the economy in 2015 may significantly decrease.
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