The economy in a deep red
The parameters of the new macroeconomic forecast told reporters on Saturday, Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev. Ministry count all the parameters, based on the price of oil at $ 50 per barrel on average in 2015. “While consensus forecasts show a higher score, but comes from the Ministry of Economic Development as possible conservative”, – explained the Minister.
As a result, had dramatically – from 0.8 to about 3% – reduce forecast GDP dynamics . Sharply reduced expectations and other parameters – fall in investment in fixed assets will be almost 4 times higher than expected in December (see. Table), when officials believed the forecast on the basis of $ 80 per barrel. “To a large extent the Ministry of Economy assumes a reduction in private investment, to a lesser extent – public investment,” – said a source in the government. The fall in industrial production will be 1.6% versus 1.1% growth in the previous forecast.
The capital outflow of $ 115 billion, in 2014 it amounted to $ 151.5 billion – 2.5 times more than in 2013. Ministry of Economic Development comes from the fact that the sanctions regime will operate throughout 2015 and borrowers will have to fulfill the obligation to repay foreign loans, buying currency on the foreign exchange market and not being able to refinance its obligations, the official said the government.
Prices will rise, revenues decreased
People will feel the slowdown in the economy this year. First – because of rising prices. By the end of the year, inflation will be close to 12%, according to a new macroeconomic forecast. “Already in January it will reach more than 2.1%, and to return it by 12%, you will greatly slow down the rise in prices in the remaining months, and a decrease in the key rate is not conducive to this – says Associate Professor of Finance at NES Oleg Shibanov. – I would expect inflation peak around May – about 20% ».
Economic Development expects a decline in real wages of the population in 2015 of more than 9%, real incomes – by 6%. The fall in real incomes by 1% has been recorded at the end of 2014. This is the first year since 2000, even in the crisis year of 2009 an increase was recorded. Was to blame for the devaluation, “ate” more than 7% in real incomes for the last month of the year. In general, this is expressed in the reduction of consumer demand by about 8%, said a source in the government of RBC.
He said that under such assumptions the average exchange rate in 2015 is estimated at around 60 rubles. per dollar. Deputy Head of the Center for Economic Forecasting Gazprombank Maxim Petronevich says that one of his scenarios at an oil price of $ 45 per barrel, the ruble by the end of the year could reach 64 rubles. the dollar (the euro against the dollar strengthened somewhat).
Outlook “adequate»
The day before the introduction of the new forecast the government First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov described it as “very hard.” “I must say this openly – no rainbow representations we have no illusions, too,” – he said, speaking in the State Duma on Friday. According to him, “This is the forecast, as we work in conditions and external compression, and rather low oil prices».
The updated forecast looks adequately than before, says head of Fixed Income Research and PSB Igor Golubev. However, the oil price will be higher, he said: the $ 64 per barrel drop in GDP could reach 5.5% rate – 62 rubles. per dollar, consumer demand will decrease by 5%, investment in fixed assets – by 12%. If the oil price will still remain at $ 50 per barrel, GDP could fall by 6%, suggests Golubev.
Oleg Shibanov of NES agree with the price of oil and the fall of the assessment of investments laid down in the forecast of Economic Development. Decline in GDP it is expected to reach 5% rate – above 70 rubles. per dollar. Inflation can also reach 15%. There is a feeling that for some items Ministry optimistic than most economists, adds Shibanov. “On the other hand, it may indicate a greater confidence in their model in Economic Development” – he says.
Calculate the budget
«Based on this forecast, it is clear that all the anti-crisis plan is very rough and it is clear that it will change,” – said a source in the government of RBC. According to him, based on the forecast will be prepared amendments to the federal budget for 2015. These amendments will be fixed two positions – a revaluation in March of existing government programs and funds to further the use of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund.
State program will be reduced linearly. In the already adopted anti-crisis plan, there is mention of choosing priorities. “Therefore, the need to reduce costs unevenly” – the official said. Some objects have to fully fund. Building, which is just beginning, with the exception of the Crimean bridge, it is desirable not to start. It is also important to assess the cost of conservation of objects, which can be more expensive than continuing to build, he argues. After the completion of this work will be to understand how to reduce the state program.
For example, on Thursday at Igor Shuvalov discussed the state program of development of the transport system. The position of the Ministry of Economy that any reduction in the participation of VEB in this program shall be compensated by means of anti-crisis fund, which is designed to support those programs that meet the high demand and shortage of modernization and fully comply with the notion of productivity costs. Not possessing such qualities programs should be reduced to a greater extent.
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