the Unilateral decision of Belarus to raise tariffs for the transit of Russian oil to Europe aborting last year a compromise agreement between Moscow and Minsk. The duration of the tariff increase is limited to a two-month period to 31 March, which tells about the desire of Belarus to continue bargaining with its Eastern neighbor.
From February 1, Belarus intends to increase tariffs for transit of Russian gas through pipelines of 7.7%. The decision was made, as reported by TASS, the Ministry of Antimonopoly regulation and trade (MARCH) in the country. In addition, as reported by the Agency BelTA, the Ministry of Antimonopoly regulation and trade of Belarus and the Russian Federal Antimonopoly service have agreed on the size of tariff indexation.
“If Minsk does not get a higher price for the Russian gas transit, it will try to obtain concessions elsewhere”
Therefore, the previous October the agreement between Minsk and Moscow, which as the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and Vice-Premier of this country Vladimir Semashko has declared that “issues are agreed and removed” and “the solution”, was neutralized, and the parties returned to the former conflict state which was observed prior to these negotiations.
we will Remind, the conflict between the States is that in the third quarter of 2016, the year Russia at 2.25 million tons reduced the volume of crude oil supplies to Belarus (it was planned that from 2016 to 2024-ies will be delivered to 24 million worth of oil annually). This was done, according to the Russian Ministry of energy Alexander Novak, because of incomplete payment by Belarus of the Russian gas and short supply of petroleum products to Russia. According to the original agreements, Belarus should return the part of oil products to Russia, however with this item in Minsk constantly having “problems” that can be observed in recent years.
this situation has forced Moscow to retaliate, not by chance, the Deputy head of the Ministry of energy of Russia Kirill Molodtsov said that Russia would produce more of gasoline itself, but the Belarusian gasoline it will be necessary only in the case of peak loads.
In turn, the official Minsk has accused Moscow in the fall of its economy, as stated by the Minister of economy of Belarus Vladimir Zinovsky, the country’s GDP by the end of this year may decline by 2.5–2.6 percent, while the Belarusian government originally planned growth at 0.3%. According to the head of economic Department, the drop in rates is due to the lack of raw materials to Belarusian refineries supplied from Russia.
back in October of last year, to the reached agreements, the head of Belneftekhim Igor Lyashenko said that Belarus is looking for alternative sources of oil supply. Thus, according to the Scientific research Mises center (Minsk), during the years of cooperation the oil grant Russia to Belarus amounted to about 75 billion dollars. Today, buying Russian oil at $ 30 per barrel gives Belarus an increase of 2-3% of GDP. If Belarus is buying oil at world prices (45-50 dollars), the cost of buying the raw materials would be 2-3% of GDP higher. If we assume that Belarus, for example, will begin to buy oil in Azerbaijan, it will result in the loss of 2-3% of GDP.
it Should be noted that “hand in hand” with the “oil conflict” of Russia and Belarus goes on and the “gas conflict”. So, from the beginning of 2016, the year Belarus began to insist on reduction of prices on Russian “blue fuel” from 132 dollars to 73 dollars for 1 thousand cubic meters demanded by Russia’s transition to equal profit gas prices. At first did not recognize the Minsk and the existence of the debt for the delivered gas from Russia, but at the end of October talks agreed that the amount owed is 281 million dollars. The debt of the Belarusian side promised to close until October 20 of last year, but still have not made it.
the Debt for gas is another reason that Moscow has cut oil supplies to Minsk. In early December, the Belarusian side sent a down payment in the hope that the volume of Russian oil exports are restored, however, said the Vice-Premier of Russia Arkady Dvorkovich, the payment was sent back because Moscow expects Minsk closing the entire amount of the debt for gas.
“Belarus wants Russia more concessions, particularly to pay for gas at Russian domestic prices, while steadily moving toward the West – shared with the newspaper VIEW his own vision of the situation the head of the Center for economic research Institute of globalization and social movements Vasily Koltashov. – She has nothing to offer in return. I believe that Moscow is again expected difficult negotiations, and Minsk will try if not to receive an increased price for transit of Russian gas, then try to win concessions elsewhere. I don’t expect close to the resolution of this conflict, because it constantly to create situations of conflict with Russia is a strategy of the Belarusian regime. It allows him to constantly get any concessions that benefit only the Belarusian economice”.
According to experts, today Belarus as the only transit country for Russian gas to Europe in full using this situation, a hostage of which Russia is:
“Minsk benefited from the deterioration of relations between Kiev and Moscow, – said Koltashov. And now he wants to many turned a blind eye, for example, smuggled into Russia via the Customs Union of goods from Europe. This is the sign of the times, if the Russian-belorusskih negotiations bedut closed any question, it will be closed only for a time, but instead Belarus “will open the” any other”.
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