After removing from Iran imposed sanctions on him before the flow of oil to the world market will grow by about 1 million barrels per day, to be a forecast of the World Bank (WB). According to experts WB, return to the market of Iranian oil will reduce the price of a barrel of about $ 10 (from $ 66 to $ 56), which will have a significant negative impact on the revenues of the budgets of the largest oil-exporting countries.
In particular, the reduction in income from exports of Saudi oil World Bank experts estimated at $ 40 billion a year, and a similar loss of Libya – at $ 5 billion. The very same Iran, according to the World Bank, to increase their income, as the increase in the volume of oil exports wins more than lose from the decline in oil prices.
The WB experts also expect that after the lifting of sanctions, Iran will be able to significantly increase the flow of arriving in the country’s economy to direct foreign investment. Already in 2016-2017 may reach $ 3-3.2 billion, which is roughly twice the current level. In doing so, the Iranian authorities to assess the needs of the oil and gas sector investment to 2020 of $ 130-145 billion.
oil-importing countries, the report said the World Bank, will benefit not only from the decline in world oil prices, but and the resumption of full-fledged trade with Iran. This will have the greatest benefit the US and the EU, the volume of trade with Iran, which after the sanctions were reduced almost to zero. Among the countries that will be able to increase the volume of trade with Iran, World Bank experts called Russia. Back in 2000, Russia accounted for about 11% of Iran’s imports of goods (the third largest trade partner of Iran), in 2014 it was reduced to 2%.
Previously, experts Morgan Stanley said that if returned freed Iran sanctions and stabilize the situation in fact covered by the civil war of Libya influx of new oil can worsen the situation and lead to the strongest in the last 30 years, a fall in oil prices. The forecast Morgan Stanley pointed out that in this case the recession drags on for at least three years – “is much worse than in 1986».
In 1986, the overproduction of oil has led to a sharp drop in world prices. If at the beginning of 1980 the price of a barrel reached $ 35 (about US $ 100 in terms of today’s money), then in 1986 it fell below $ 10 (a little over $ 20 at current exchange rate) and did not rise above $ 20 for several years . Oil-exporting countries have suffered serious financial losses and the Soviet Union for a sharp reduction in the inflow of petrodollars, according to some experts, has become one of the causes of the economic collapse.
On the eve of the experts of the investment bank JP Morgan slashed its forecast for oil prices in 2015. According to the new version of the document, the average price of a barrel of Brent in 2015 decreased by $ 16 – up to $ 54.5. In 2016 she, according to experts, will decrease to $ 52.5, or $ 19 less than the previous estimate. The JP Morgan believe that the fall of international oil prices will increase in the volume of oil production and the beginning of the season preventive maintenance work at refineries.
In the course of trading on Tuesday on the stock exchange ICE futures price for Brent crude oil for delivery in October 2015, hovering around $ 51 per barrel, rising to a maximum of $ 51.69 per barrel.
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