The Central Bank has received praise for Vladimir Putin’s persistent efforts to stabilize the ruble. CB Head Elvira Nabiullina did not oppose the high scores. And the rate of national currency, as if out of a sense of solidarity with the president, strengthened by the exchange on a ruble.
On Monday, President Vladimir Putin and the head of the Central Elvira Nabiullina discussed the results of the banking sector for the first half 2015 including the problem of the stability of the national currency.
According to Nabiullina, external events could not but affect negatively on the development of the banking system. But in general, the main indicators, the banks are in a safe area and even six months out of the profit – 51 billion rubles. “This, of course, not 600 billion last year, not $ 1 trillion the year before, but this is a positive thing,” – said Nabiullina. It expects profit of the banking sector for the year “at the level of 100 billion.”
The situation with the national currency, too uncritical, follows from the results of the meeting.
«The Central Bank is doing a lot to strengthen the national currency, in any case, in order to make her feel stable to the same stable feel our financial system as a whole. I see how hard you go down this path, “- Putin praised Nabiullina.
On the eve of the meeting in the Kremlin Nabiullina revealed the need for the Russian business in dollars needed to repay foreign debts by the end of this year. This factor often puts pressure on the ruble exchange rate against major currencies. Actual payments over that period, according to the Central Bank, “can be up to $ 35 billion.”
The rest of the payments on intercompany payments and commitments (of $ 61 billion). These payments are likely to rollover and refinancing, says the Central Bank. The share of intra-group loans in the total amount of payments on foreign loans will be in September – 74%, in October – 59%, in November – 8%, and in December – 48%.
For this reason, the Central Bank believes that the pressure on the ruble until the end of the year is almost twice less, and companies with foreign debts have to borrow are not as active as in fourth quarter 2014 – first quarter of 2015.
The ruble on the stock exchange in recent days became cheaper due to falling prices for the neft.Odnako today in the afternoon, as if in solidarity with the Russian President, the ruble began to strengthen. Exchange rate reached nearly 63 rub., The euro fell to 69.5. Seriously speaking, the ruble came to life because of the “rebound” in the oil market – there is a barrel again climbed to $ 50.
What awaits the Russian currency in the coming weeks
George Vashchenko, Head of operations on the Russian stock market IR “Freedom Finance”, says reducing the rate in the current market conditions, when the oil price drops, the Central Bank eases speculative attack on the ruble. However, before the year is not expected such a large as a year ago, the demand for currency to pay off external liabilities, so the dynamics of the oil will be the main factor.
In this regard, it can be expected that the Central Bank will not intervene in bids below 66 rubles. the dollar because it would lead to the premature depletion of international reserves. “We expect the oil price to the end of the year will show weakly positive dynamics to the level of $ 60-65 per barrel, so that by the end of the year we can expect the ruble to 50-55 rubles. the dollar “, – says Vashchenko.
«The fall of the ruble against the dollar to 64-65 rubles. (As in our negative scenario) has already been implemented even without the factor of external debt, so in the absence of recovery of oil prices, we believe it possible to further depreciation of the end of the year “- says the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Maria Pomelnikova.
According to the forecast of Raiffeisenbank, if the average oil price will recover to around $ 60 per barrel, the dollar will cost 65 rubles. at the end of the year. If the oil price does not recover from the current level of about $ 49, it is possible weakening of the ruble against the dollar before the end of the year within another 5 rubles. with respect to the current exchange rate.
CB introduced a “personal contribution” to the national currency rate fixing. Since May, the regulator began to accumulate reserves through interventions in the foreign exchange market. Every day, the Central Bank bought for $ 200 million and to stop this practice only at the end of July. During this time, the ruble has fallen by almost 20% – to 49.98 rubles. per dollar on May 12 (the purchase began May 13) to 59.65 rubles. per dollar by the end of the day July 27 (buying stopped July 28).
«Central Bank stopped buying currency when it began to create volumes of the risks of devaluation expectations gain arising on a background of a sharp drop in oil prices,” – sums up the Raiffeisenbank.
Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich convinced that “there is absolutely no meaning Bank of praise for the stability of the ruble. Quite the contrary. ” “The ruble is very closely tied to oil, that just reinforces his swing. Margin was in December last year. But then the Central Bank to tighten the screws so much that the economy faced. Further, the same overly high interest rates kept too long, which provided at least a strong inverse movement rubles (growth) in the beginning of the year, again after the oil “- says Kuptsikevich.
In this situation, the right to the Central Bank would be a reduction in volatility, albeit at the expense of the weaker rubles. However, in the first half of the ruble repeated dynamics of oil, which continues to do in July and August. And if the decline in oil will continue further, and the ruble will fall proportionally Kuptsikevich notes. “Fix this dependence could perhaps that rapid economic growth in the country, but it is not due to high interest rates, in turn, is linked to the key rate of the Central Bank”, – says the expert.
reason to praise the Central Bank nevertheless available, experts believe. “For action to manage liquidity in the money market through auctions,” – says Kuptsikevich.
The correct policy of the Central Bank of clearing the banking sector from criminal representatives of the banking sector, experts say. “But is it really so in a timely manner, whether to do it at a time when the banking industry is already suffering from a lack of liquidity” – says Kuptsikevich.
A weak ruble, what is the merit of the Central Bank, is profitable for speculators, a weak ruble moves stock prices in an environment where investors’ activity on the Russian market is close to the minimum, Schenk said Andrei, analyst of “Alfa Capital».
The weakening of the ruble caused by the fall in the price of black gold once again made the purchase of shares of an actual exporters and as a result better dynamics shown by them. In the near future is possible rebound in oil, which will support the ruble and, accordingly, may cause a correction in these papers “, – says Schenk.
The sharp jumps in the currency market will intensify in the fall, experts say. Wait support the ruble is still nowhere. Count on substantial growth of oil prices is not necessary, but the fall of market participants expect a rate hike US Federal Reserve, which will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar. “Central Bank could take a pause in response to the decrease in the key rate, or even improve it. However, such measures are unlikely to support the ruble, and will have only a short period of time “, – says Yuri Kravchenko, a senior analyst of investment company” Veles Capital “. 
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