Ruble healthy as ever – Moskovsky Komsomolets

said US economic agency Bloomberg

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The ruble reached one of the best states at least since 1993, after the third consecutive year the reduction in the key rate by the Central Bank of Russia. This confidence information-analytical agency Bloomberg. The Russian national currency has strengthened against the dollar since February 3 by almost a quarter.

Photo: morguefile.com

Although many domestic and foreign experts believe that the growth of the ruble in recent times too fast, which reduces the prospects for import substitution and export growth, a strong currency always keeps inflation. And it is now – one of the strategic objectives of the government and the Central Bank.

The Russian currency has strengthened against the dollar during April by as much as 13%. The latter figure from 1 to May 5 – 51.1388 rubles for “green”. In the middle of last month it has been more inspirational figure – 49.67 rubles / $ . It all began in April – with 58.77 / $ /. Recall that in early February for the wood and gave all $ 67 or more. So rapid revival of the Russian currency rate there, especially considering the fact that last year she had lost weight 100%.

Of course, it is difficult to imagine is that we return the usual a long time about 30 rubles per dollar but still “wooden” after the large-scale collapse is clearly climbing up.

In this already drew attention not only to the Russian currency holders (many of them now regret that they were buying a dollar for 65-67 rubles), but and foreign investors. According to several investment agencies in the last 2-3 months, foreign investors repeatedly increase investment in the Russian economy. Of course, the overall figures is not impressive, but that money is used to output. But our population to begin mass sale of currency.

What has happened in our economy, it has become more attractive? At first glance, all the contrary, bad. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, GDP in I quarter fell by 2.2%, annual inflation (yoy) has reached nearly 17%. And who in sober memory will invest in a farm?

But, as always, in the economic development of important sustainable positive trends. After the night of December 16 last year, the Central Bank to save the ruble from a catastrophic collapse (in exchange already given 80 rubles to the dollar and 100 – to the euro), lifted its key rate from 10.5% to 17% immediately, Many analysts generally put an end to the Russian economy. After all, if the Bank of Russia lends money to commercial banks to 17%, what prevents them to enrich themselves at the expense of loans to the real sector, for example, 25-30% per annum? And so the risks, including political (eg, the war in the Donbass), too. But, as repeatedly stressed, even the head of the Association of Banks rossiysskih Tosunyan, even a 9% rate of loans to enterprises is a “mortal.” Tor there is interest for such a business will not build.

But, as with obvious enthusiasm marked the beginning of this year, all branches of the Russian government, the collapse of his were not afraid, did not happen. Moreover, GDP fell two times less than expected.

It seems that the Central Bank unexpectedly raising the key rate, it was right – at the currency speculators immediately dropped sharply profitability. And after a mega-regulator with the Ministry of Finance began to provide Russian borrowers cheap currency loans for reckoning with foreign creditors (as needed until the end of 2014 to pay up to $ 130 billion), the dollar and the euro began to gradually slow down the pressure on the Russian national currency. And finally, the decisive blow struck oil. After last year’s fall of her prices more than doubled since mid-January, she gradually began to rise in price – the lowest price by almost 30%.

This is the ruble and stronger. Behind him since March began to decline and inflation. Central Bank under this influence key rate cuts. As is known, with 17% in three steps (the latter – April 30), it was reduced to 12.5%. Experts expect that by year’s end it will return to the figures late last year – that is, up to 10-10.5%. However, if the ruble will continue to keep this corridor – from 50 to 55 to the dollar, and inflation to decline – it is possible that the key rate will be less. However, it is difficult to predict that it will soon return to the very first indicator of 5.5%. So the burden of relatively cheap credit to the economy, especially agriculture and small businesses will have to keep a long time the state budget.

But in any case, Bloomberg noted a very important turn in the economic situation in our country. After the flight of capital there has even cautious, but the return of foreign money into our country. A population of more boldly to sell the currency. What does all this lead? Again, the strengthening of the ruble and reduce inflation, particularly in the food sector. This is a traditional economic cycle.