Central Bank will buy the currency in the market to replenish reserves – RBC

Photo: Yekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

The decision was taken due to the normalization of the situation in the domestic foreign exchange market and to replenish international reserves of the Central Bank explained in a statement. “To minimize the impact on the dynamics of the exchange rate of the purchase will be carried out uniformly throughout the trading day,” – says the Bank of Russia. In the case of significant changes in the foreign exchange market transaction volume can be adjusted, the regulator stipulates.

May 1, international reserves totaled $ 365 billion, a decrease of 12 months by a quarter, or in monetary terms by $ 116 billion. Most of all international reserves, “thinner” in December 2014, when their value over the last month decreased by $ 33.4 billion. For comparison, in April reserves fell by $ 360 million, for March – to $ 3.9 billion.

The last time the Central Bank was present on the domestic market on January 29 but then he sold the currency. The volume of transactions on that day amounted to $ 690 billion in total for January regulator has spent on the purchase of currency $ 2.3 billion. In December, the amount was much more – $ 11.9 billion, and in October, the Central Bank sold on the domestic market of $ 27, 2 billion, and € 1,6 billion is a record value since January 2009.

The head of trading in the currency market, Alexander FG BCS Mulberger believes that these actions the Bank of Russia should not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the currency market, since a small amount of the alleged purchases. “$ 100-200 million – a small amount, even for the last day is not too liquid, when trading volume was about $ 3 billion,” – he said.

However, he said, perhaps the psychological impact – participants the market can take it too emotional a decision of the Central Bank. At the opening of trading on Thursday, the dollar rose against the ruble by 74 kopecks., To 50,01 rubles. “So far we can say that common sense will prevail. I think that the market will continue to move after the dynamics of oil “, – adds Mulberger.

The head of trading IR” Aton “Yaroslav Podsevatkin believes that its decision of the Central Bank points to a reasonable exchange rate. “Apparently, the Central Bank does not expect further strengthening of the ruble. The budget is imposed on the basis of the price of oil at $ 50 a barrel and the dollar exchange rate of 61.5 rubles. And oil, and the ruble strengthened, but further strengthening of the national currency to nothing, “- says Podsevatkin.

The chief economist for Russia and CIS,” Renaissance Capital “Oleg Kuzmin also points out that the Bank of Russia is concerned about the significant strengthening rubles. “It is trading above fundamentally justified levels, which creates risks for the development of import substitution” – said Kuzmin. First, the Central Bank raised the cost of foreign currency repos, and is now beginning to buy foreign currency in small amounts – so the Central Bank reacts to excessively strengthen the ruble, Kuzmin said.

In general, this mechanism is very similar to what it was before, said Kuzmin. “We have already been planned purchase or sale of foreign currency. Now the Bank of Russia introduces the planned purchase of currency – during the day it will be equally buy from $ 100 million to $ 200 million a day, “- he said, adding that in the last month with the Central Bank will be able to replenish the reserves by $ 2.4 billion.