14.05.2015 13:22
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Thursday, May 14, 2015
CBR hinders the further strengthening of the ruble – a REGNUM
The increase in international reserves will increase the investment attractiveness of the Russian economy
The Bank of Russia starts its regular purchases of foreign currency in the amount of 100 million to $ 200 million to replenish international reserves. How to find the reporter interviewed IA REGNUM May 14 experts will serve as replenishment and stabilization of the position of the Russian economy, and the revision of forecasts for its prospects on the part of rating agencies.
The ruble will focus on the dynamics of oil prices
The message is that the Russian control since May 13 started the intervention on buying foreign currency (in rubles) in the domestic market, was the main news for the foreign exchange market participants said EXNESS analyst Sergei Kochergin. “The same purpose regulator could be achieved through a complete collapse of currency repo transactions, that is to do early. According to the Moscow stock exchange, in April the average daily turnover in the foreign exchange market amounted to 22.1 billion US dollars (spot and swap transactions). Thus, the intervention of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the volume of 100-200 million dollars a day will not have a material impact on the ruble pair. The ruble will be more focus on the dynamics of oil prices, “- says the analyst.
Actions CB objectively prevents excessive strengthening of the Russian currency. But, experts say, if the Central Bank explicitly stated that the support for Russian exporters and Russian budget revenues desirable weakening of the ruble, its independence would be questioned. With regard to the dynamics of the euro-dollar pair that are experts predict a rise in the euro to $ 1.15 before the end of the month and the weakening of the dollar to a mark of 48 rubles.
Purchase of foreign currency to replenish reserves is now profitable
The decision of the Bank of Russia to start regular purchases of foreign currency on the domestic market is quite logical and made the most favorable conditions, says a senior analyst at GK FOREX CLUB Alyona Afanasyeva. CBA acts proactively, she believes: “Despite the fact that the Bank of Russia claims that the move is not aimed” to maintain a certain level of the course “, the facts speak for themselves: last quotation dollar / ruble down to the 6-month low of 48.71 and today it is trading around 50.00. Given that the budget for 2015 is imposed in the calculation of the ratio of the price of oil to 50 dollars per barrel and the dollar exchange rate of 61.5 rubles, it is easy to calculate that at current oil prices, the dollar exchange rate should not fall below 46.00 rubles. “
With the current decline of the US dollar on the world currency market is very profitable to start buying to replenish foreign exchange reserves now, experts say. “International currency reserves of Russia must be replenished: in April they again decreased by 360 million dollars. As of April 1, the overall figure was 356.365 billion dollars, which is 40% below the peak of 598 billion dollars, noted in August 2008. Replenishment will serve and stabilize position of the Russian economy, and the revision of forecasts for its prospects on the part of rating agencies and other international institutions. It is possible that the process of capital flight after the decision to slow down or unfold: more impressive volumes of reserves will increase the investment attractiveness of the national economy “, – the expert believes.
However, the current decision is unlikely to remain a major factor in long-term pressure on the ruble says Afanasyev. “The market reacted to the inertia action of the Central Bank, but with the stabilization of the economic indicators, de-escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the further increase in oil prices in the Russian currency has good prospects. According to the terminal Libertex, the Russian currency may gain a firm foothold below 50.00 against the dollar and 55.00 against the euro “, – believes it.
wants to stabilize the exchange rate of the Central Bank in the area of 52-54 rubles per dollar
This practice is absolutely justified if the Central Bank considers that the rate decreased in comparison with the “reasonable rate ratio of the ruble and the dollar,” says chief investment officer of the investment company AGT-invest Dmitry coercion. “This is not related to the critical level of international reserves of Russia, but it is an additional opportunity to fill up their few and simultaneously align the rate” – the analyst says.
According to Nuzhdenova, in the short term the ruble will weaken somewhat, perhaps to the level of 52-54 rubles per dollar. “In general, the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation aimed at stabilizing the ruble fluctuations around this level that the Central Bank considers reasonable” – said the expert.
strong fluctuations in the foreign exchange market is not expected
The decision of the Central Bank of the regular purchase of foreign currency was to be expected, says Head of Treasury CB “INVESTSOTSBANK” Denis Maksimov. “After the exchange rates fell to psychologically comfortable level, the Bank of Russia that statement showed that the strong fluctuations in the currency market should not expect”, – he explained. According to Maximov, a decision should distract from the part of market players are actively speculating, whose actions including due to high volatility in the currency market.
We look forward to a smooth decrease in the ruble
The desire to build up international reserves is justified, says a senior analyst at Alpari Vadim Iosub. “When the claimed scope of operations, the purchase of 100-200 million dollars. per day, monthly reserves may grow by 2-4 billion dollars “, – the expert said.
At the same time foreign exchange intervention by central banks used not only to maintain the national currency from falling, but also against its unwanted strengthening, experts say Thus, the central banks of Japan and Switzerland have traditionally used the intervention, it is struggling with the strengthening of the yen and the franc. “In the last month, the Central Bank and representatives of the economic bloc of the government have repeatedly stated about” excessive “strengthening of the ruble, that it is overbought, so that the decision is not necessary to be surprised,” – says Iosub.
Now we can expect further decline of the ruble, experts predict. “It is likely to take place smoothly, without the jumps, which were characteristic for the end of the past – the beginning of the year” – says the analyst.
CBA opposes unreasonable growth of the ruble
appreciates the actions of the Central Bank of the head of the analytical department AMarkets Artem Deev. “This active foreign exchange intervention by the Central Bank often rescued from the ruble devaluation even greater losses. If we translate the current international reserves in the ruble equivalent, then compared to the previous year is not possible to ascertain the loss, and even increase – thanks to a positive revaluation of the depreciation of the ruble, “- he said.
The increased demand for the American currency by the Central Bank can really bring down not quite reasonable to strengthen the national currency of the asset, believes Deev. “Past measures increase the cost of funding through repo operations of currency did not help to achieve the desired result. But one thing is clear – the Russian mega-regulator continues to resist the growth of the ruble that threatens the stability of the structure of the budget, “- said the expert.
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