Russian importers of seafood most painfully ban on the supply of food to Russia from the European Union, the USA, Canada and Norway, where the fish was delivered more than the Far East. Business is ready to redirect exports into the country, but subject to a decrease in railway tariffs and if the government will be able to tell exactly where a deficit. It is not known how long the sanctions, no one runs the risk of investing in capacity expansion inland aquaculture.
Smell “fried” fish
In the day of the announcement of the introduction of food sanctions, August 7, the Association of industrial and commercial enterprises of the fish market (Fish Association) appealed to the government to introduce a transitional period for the Russian importers of European and American fish.
Fishing Association unites over 20 companies that are leaders in the field of import, processing and marketing of fish and seafood. These companies account for about 70% of all imports of fishery products in Russia, which means that along with them will survive the stress and retailers.
In an open letter to the Government of Fish Association says that after the Federal Customs Service will cease to miss loads, already owned by Russian companies, some importers and domestic producers can be bankrupt.
«Already today the customs stopped missing fish from Norway and the European Union – said the” Expert Online » Vitaly Kornev , president of the Association of industrial and commercial enterprises of the fish market. – But according to the hardness of the decision, the transition period will not be. As a result, now ships with purchased in the same Norwegian fish can not go to the Russian ports, and the Norwegians back it will not, for obvious reasons. And where to put it, now is not clear. Only the cost of the loss of recently loaded products can be estimated at several million dollars. Add long-term losses from contracts with the United States, of whom work on a prepaid and do not return it to Russian companies ».
Loss Association of Fish companies can range from 1.5 to 3 billion by the end of the year because of canceled due sanctions contracts. Now all Russian companies, importing occupied risk minimization. And to put it simply – their managers run like scalded, thinking how to avoid direct losses from the loss of contracts with the same suppliers and as soon sign contracts with other without hitting including under the “press” of law enforcement. In particular, market participants do not rule out that the native troops equated prepayment US companies (which only work and money, of course, will not be returned) illegal withdrawal of funds abroad. Perhaps these and many other concerns will be a misunderstanding, but this trick entrepreneurs are not discounted. Some, according to a source in one of the companies-importers, went to the other extreme measures and threatened arbitration refused to pay the same for Norwegian suppliers have already shipped the fish to avoid bankruptcy in the near future. In this case, the majority of importers of fish from the “sanctions” countries will have to reduce staffing from 10 to 50% of the staff.
Fresh fish will be a deficit
The authorities of the fishing industry are full of optimism and believe that domestic companies will benefit from the import substitution.
«We export more than import, there is no doubt that we will be able to substitute its own market in fishery products – said Ilya Shestakov , Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Food, Head of Federal Agency for Fishery. – The main thing is that this product has been in demand. Maybe, environmentally friendly, this salmon will be slightly more expensive fish farmed in Norway. I am sure that in this case, the Russian market will be open for our products, which has a positive impact on the entire fishing industry. Ocean fish are much better aquaculture. One should also consider the fact that we export more than import. Therefore, if necessary, we may well be able to satisfy the domestic market its own products ».
According to him, last year, from the Far East has been sent to the central Russian 300 wagons of fresh fish, this is expected to almost six times more . High hopes on the transport and logistics center “Dry Port”, which can handle up to three thousand containers per day, and the speed of delivery to Moscow thanks to him should increase up to five times (however, due to what is not reported).
In general, in the past year, according to the Federal Agency for Fishery, fish exports from Russia amounted to more than 1.5 million tons of seafood (including crustaceans and shellfish), and imports – about 885 thousand tons. Importers’ clipped fins “literally on the rise. For the first nine months of last year, imports of frozen salmon and trout grew almost 2 times – to 71.1 thousand tons of herring – by 13.2%, to 101.6 thousand tons of mackerel – by 22.1%, to 97.8 thousand tons. Import grouper increased by 2.1 times and amounted to 6,000 tons, and capelin – by 30.2%. Ros also import shrimp and shellfish.
«In part, we will be able to replace the Norwegian fish on the Chilean, but it is not chilled, and frozen and more expensive Norwegian – said Valery roots. – It is difficult to share the optimism of the Far authorities, who say they may be able to compensate for the loss due to the supply of their regions. Increase dramatically catch impossible to switch from exports to domestic supply will not be easy. Although the price is the same Far frozen pink salmon to the cost of delivery is comparable to the chilled-out Norway, which, after the sea are delivered by truck to Moscow. But it is worse in quality. And herring, we expect double the price increase. Russia harvested in the Far East Pacific herring sells abroad and buys Atlantic (we appreciate it more in terms of taste). If we start to drive instead of the Atlantic in the center of the Pacific Russia by rail, then the herring, which is already low demand, would be expensive. In addition, there will be shortage of refrigerator cars ».
The loss of the fish market of Russia from the termination of deliveries of the European Union will be painful due to the existing structure of imports. Traditionally, the first in terms of importation of fish and other marine eatables are Norwegian importers. In 2013, they put in Russia 284,970 tons of seafood (almost half of them frozen and less – chilled). Norwegian import volume in Russia is much more than all other countries combined. Of the 140 thousand tons of whole fresh and chilled fish products imported into Russia in 2013, almost 88% were Norway. Hence we receive primarily chilled salmon and trout, frozen herring, capelin and other.
In second place in terms of imports of fish products – Iceland (93.3 thousand tons last year). However, in the governmental order of August 7, Iceland does not appear in the list of prohibited countries for the purchase of food (which is surprising since it joined August 1 to EU countries, who introduced sectoral sanctions against Russia). If Iceland will include a “sanctions” list, it turns out that Russia refuses to general supplies fresh salmon and other fish.
«Sanction” Canada, Estonia, UK, USA, Ireland, Faroe Islands, Denmark and Finland are added Russian imports about 230,000 tonnes of fish. Overall, a total of “forbidden” now imports could reach more than 600 thousand tons against 170 thousand legal from China, Chile, Vietnam, Peru and Morocco (in descending order by volume). Other countries supply less than 10 thousand tons per year and the statistics do not have much impact.
That is a full replacement of “sanctions” imports may not be possible.
Farmers are not at risk to increase Power
The drop in imports of northwest salmon, it would seem, the good times have come to pass at the domestic producers of the same aquaculture.
«Already Now fish farming aquaculture Leningrad region and Karelia have raised prices by 10-15% – said “Expert Online» Vladimir Petrushin, President of the Federal Union fisheries. – Although previously held back price at Norwegian. I think speculative sentiment will continue ».
But these farms were in a difficult situation. On the one hand, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev threatened liability to anyone who will “speculate on the situation.” On the other hand, farmers would be more than ever to take advantage of additional profit for the development of their production on the background of the active promotion of the Government of import substitution. However, experts doubt that the additional recovery of profit it makes sense to send to expand capacity. Fish farms on this is not yet solved.
«yesterday spoke with many participants of our union, and no one has expressed willingness to invest in the expansion of production, – said Vladimir Petrushin. – Entrepreneurs do not dare to take strategic decisions under uncertainty. Suppose now the demand will grow by the end of the year three times in the production of domestic fish farms. Someone may take the risk to invest in the expansion of production, purchase of food, accessories. And soon the sanctions will be removed again – and then what to do when he returns cheap Norwegian fish ?! Livestock production cycle takes more than two years. And if the sanctions will not last half a year? »
Most do not catch quota
Members the fishing industry and in fact, with the hope look to the Far East. But here in the past year, the total catch of aquatic biological resources was 2, 7 million tons, up 62,000 tons below the level of the previous year. At the same time the North Basin fishermen produced 594.3 thousand tons, which is more catches for the same period last year to 36,900.
«Our analysts while exploring the changing market situation, but in general it can be said that for us, the situation is not so critical – said “Expert Online» Ilya Bereznuk, Director of Public Relations Group “Russian Sea”. – We have a distribution in the main Russian fish catch. In part and we lost the biggest supplier – Norway. But switch to other fish. Although a full examination of the situation to the official position of the company has not yet formed ».
However, everyone understands that the increase in the catch quota of fish (mostly marine and ocean) in itself is not possible. Internal quotas distributed among Russian fishing companies and within a year do not change. In turn, Russian quotas are established at the international level (depending on livestock and other conditions).
«Increasing the catch are not talking, but you can fill in the domestic market, abandoning exports, – says Ilya Vlasenko , Director of Corporate Communications” Russian sea mining. ” – The same herring we export almost 2.5 times more than the import. And a similar situation in almost all kinds of fish. Can be expected to increase recycling and northwestern salmon produced Murmansk and Arkhangelsk enterprises for sale in Norway. This is promising because of the Murmansk carry chilled fish to Moscow three days. Capacity for processing in the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk fishermen, it’s over there, but not as much as the Norwegians. ”
It is possible that Norway may impose retaliatory sanctions against Russia. Then, under the impact will be just those companies that according to the Russian quota of fish caught in the Barents Sea in the Economic Zone of Norway. It is sold in the same Norwegian companies, which are then in the form of semi-finished products supply it in Russia and other countries. Such a scheme is developed, including due to the lack of sufficient treatment capacity in the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions.
«This is an old problem – the sale of Norwegian fish from the Barents Sea. With this state many years ago should have to fight, creating incentives for fish processing. There are schemes in some smaller companies penumbral – said “Expert Online» Michael Portansky , Professor, Department of Trade Policy, Department of World Economy and International Affairs HSE. – And now, of course, processing overnight not establish. In general, the fishing industry is very difficult to replace imports and exports at the expense of the more due to the internal processing – we do not have enough capacity. This is the most sensitive to changes in the industry import-export matrix. The main argument is that the importation of fish into the central Rossiiyu from the Far East for 10 thousand kilometers – it is very expensive ».
No low tariffs Railways reverse export is not profitable
The cornerstone issue of import quota fish is still logistics. Every year in the fishing season rolling stock operators increase freight rates.
«I’d like to hope that if the import substitution of fish is now a priority policy of the government, then the appropriate action is taken, – says Ilya Vlasenko. – For example, if the Railways due to an exceptional situation will reduce tariffs on routes from the Far East for the fishermen. Our company is up to 70% of the catch in the Far East is exported to China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. And we are ready to give up on exports, if we see the calculations of government: in which regions which need arises to what fish loss due to imports. We would be more profitable to abandon export and deliver the catch to the Russian ports, if domestic demand grows. But then again, we do not see where and how it will grow. ”
The only alternative to the supply of fish from the Maritime region by rail – is the Northern Sea Route, used for the transportation of frozen fish. In 2012, “Russian Fish Company” held by the Northern Sea Route is one of the largest in terms of cargo to more than 8,000 tons of frozen salmon and pollock route Far East – St. Petersburg.
«Unfortunately, the peak supply operators of rolling stock annually arrange seasonal growth rates of 2-2.5 times the delivery of fish products from Vladivostok and Sakhalin – said previously CEO of “Russian Fish Company» Dmitry Dangauer . – Cost of sections from the Far East in the season may be more than 2 million rubles, and as a result of delivery of fish to Vladivostok, then 9000 kilometers by rail, with transshipment in ports, rail sections payment, and other transportation costs can be up to several fish species 30-40% of the cost. Given the rates, the rate and volume of deliveries SMP seems a good guarantee of delivery to our customers in the European part of the country of our fish and seafood in time and without the “bloated” in the price of the transport component ».
According to Ilya Vlasov Shipping the Northern Sea Route is profitable only if the use of ships with large displacement, which need large amounts of fish. So far, there is simply no such as companies still do not plan to abandon export.
Since it is not clear how long the drag on the sanctions and whether they will be extended in the next year, and to break existing contracts no one dares. Building up new supply chains – a lengthy process, the gap existing contracts is fraught with fines and loss of potential customers. Especially because no one yet knows exactly which regions will send the return to export fish, and Ministry of Agriculture to help in this business can not or will not in a hurry.