Experts have predicted the loss of ruble more than 50% reclaimed products – RBC

Photo: Yekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

interviewed Bloomberg, economists have predicted that the ruble since the beginning of the year has strengthened by 14% by mid-year could lose more than half of the conquered positions. Experts have linked it to the achievement of the limit increase in oil prices

The median forecast of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, showed that by the middle of the year the ruble could become cheaper by 8%, to 70 rubles. . Per dollar

«We are not sure that the oil market rally will be sustainable in the short term and the strengthening of the ruble is largely due to the resumption of oil prices growth”, – said the chief investment officer of Emerging UBS markets Group AG Jorge Mariscal.

Mariscal said that the bank has ceased to be put on the strengthening of the ruble two weeks ago. UBS predicts that in three months the dollar will be 73 rubles. “Oil price correction to occur with a delay, and as soon as it begins, we will see the depreciation of the ruble in the second half of May,” – said the Director of active operations department of the company “Veles Capital” Eugene Shilenkov

As noted by Bloomberg. of all emerging currencies except for traders pesos most pessimistic is against the ruble. Historical dynamics, in turn, suggests that the Russian currency became cheaper nine times over the past 12 years in May, reminds agency

From the beginning, the ruble has appreciated by 14% -. This is the best result among the emerging markets after the Zambian kwacha and the second in the world. At the same time after the hedge funds and other large speculators, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a 47% reduced net rates on ruble with highs in March

«The ruble has three potential threats in May:. Oil , the rotation of capital flows and the risks that the Central Bank will resume its purchases of foreign currency for reserves “, – said Alexander Losev, executive director of Sputnik Asset Management. According to him, investors will seek to “reduce risks»

. On Wednesday, May 4, dollar exchange rate at the opening of the first in May 2016 trading on the Moscow stock exchange soared by more than 2 rubles. This happened against the backdrop of the fall of Brent cost $ 3 for the May holidays.

Earlier, the experts surveyed by Bloomberg expressed the view that the situation in the oil market resembles that happened last year. Then in May quotations began to fall again after a slight rebound. The representatives of Commerzbank, BNP Paribas and UBS Group suggested that the rise in oil prices by 70% compared to the January lows can be replaced by a fall in the coming weeks. So, at Commerzbank said that “the market is already overheated and a correction too late.”