Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that the adjusted forecast agency, provides that the dollar in 2016 will be 61 rubles. In the years 2017-2018 the strengthening of the Russian currency to 53-52 rubles, “Interfax».
In addition Ulyukayev said that economic growth in 2016 should reach 2.3%, and then 2.5%. « The average annual inflation this year – 16%, then we have reduced inflation, December to December – 12% since the beginning of 2016 – a one-digit inflation on output and in 2016 – a decrease to the level of 7 percent a year “- the minister added.
What is the reason this optimism is not entirely clear. Ulyukayev itself recognizes that the return of the pre-crisis price of oil in the forecast is not pledged. Oil and grow if it is not much and not right away. The forecast on oil prices in the years 2015-2018 looks like a children’s Counting. “The We laid by years of oil – $ 50, $ 60, $ 70, $ 80 a barrel », – the Minister has given the forecast. Western sanctions and embargo Russia respectively response in the forecast included. So this is not a reason for optimism.
In addition, the level of capital outflow will all also very high, although reduced. In 2015, the outflow is projected at $ 110 billion, and by the end of 2018 it should be reduced to $ 50 billion a year, I’m sure Ulyukayev.
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