On Thursday, the Bank of Russia lowered its key interest rate from 14% to 12.5%. Regulator’s decision will lead to a renegotiation of consumer loans and deposits, according to bankers interviewed by RBC Quote. Deposit rates may be reduced by 1 percentage point
On Thursday, April 30 the Central Bank lowered its key rate by 1.5 percentage points This is the third since the beginning of the decline rates: January 30, the Central Bank has reduced it to 15% from 17% – the highest level, which was established in December last year after the collapse of the ruble. Then the banks, fearing the outflow of depositors were forced to increase the yield on deposits to a record level. At the end of the second decade of 2014 – that is, four days after a radical solution of the Central Bank – the average rate on deposits 10 largest banks increased from 10.6% to 15.33%.
Since the beginning of 2015 rates on deposits are down after key rates. Hardest dropped the average yield on deposits for the three and six months. According to estimates, RBC Quote, average maximum rate on three-month deposits in the ten largest banks from 29 January to 20 April fell by 2.4 percentage points – From 13% to 10.6% per annum. Annual deposits lost 1.6 pp .: their yield decreased from 13,1% to 11,5%.
Interest rates on foreign currency deposits in some banks also reduced, although not as rapidly as Rouble. For example, MDM Bank on Wednesday, April 22 lowered the rate on deposits in US dollars for the year by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35%. Savings Bank Chief analyst Michael Matovnikov said that by autumn the maximum yield on foreign currency deposits will fall from the current 5-6% to 2-3% per annum.
Today’s decision of the Central Bank will lead to yet another reduction of return on deposits – by 1 percentage point within a month, and lower interest rates on loans. We asked the bankers to tell how this will happen.
Anton Pavlov, head of retail business development of Absolut Bank:
Of course, there will be lower rates on all types of loans in the period up to six weeks, which is comparable with the reduction of the key rate. Deposit rate will also decline: they now reach 13%, for six weeks, they will fall to 11%. I do not think it will affect consumers much, if we follow the logic of the Central Bank, the rate is reduced after inflation, so the returns for natural persons will remain the same. With regard to foreign currency deposits, it all depends on the dynamics of the course, on how the dollar will react to changes in rates. I do not think there will be major changes: the decision of the Central Bank keeps all the forecasts.
Natalia Shilova, principal analyst BIN:
The rate cut by the Bank of Russia by 1.5 percentage points It was quite expected decision. Interest rates on loans, in practice, the decisions of the Central Bank followed with a considerable lag. Interest rates on deposits, on the contrary, respond proactively. That is up to today’s meeting of the regulator rate on deposits of the largest banks have been below the key, is expected to reduce interest rates on deposits in the market by 1-1.5 percentage points in the next month, as the likelihood of further reducing the key rate at the end of the year high. For loans to the population dynamics of this unlikely – the market has worsened due to reduced income, at best, can be expected to reduce interest rates within 0.5 percentage points in the next month.
rates on deposits in the last month have decreased. After today’s decision the regulator will continue to fall in rates. But it will not be sharp, and is lower than the reduction in the key rate that is 1.5 percentage points below Many banks had expected the Central Bank to cut rates, and laid these expectations in their proposals to clients. The rate of decrease will depend on several factors. If the economy is not bad news, the main factor will be the dynamics of the ruble. If the ruble will continue to strengthen, or at least remain stable, the population will suffer again money on ruble deposits: alternative ways of investment with a good yield simply will not. And in this case, the rate will decline faster. On the mortgage market is not going to happen any significant changes. Thanks to the state subsidy program will offer with a rate no higher than 12%. As for the usual offerings of banks, the rates on them are significantly reduced.
Sumakova Natalia, director of retail products “BKM Opening»:
The overall decline in interest rates on deposits from early March. Already quite difficult to find deposits at 15% per annum. Our bank is already on May 1 will be reduced rates on ruble deposits for up to a year. On average, a decline of 1 percentage point Interest rates on deposits for the period more than a year were not high, because the banks knew that the key rate will decline and not profitable to take money from the population at high rates in the long term.
We do not rule out another review of deposit rates after the May holidays. As well as lending rates will go down, but there is still too early to talk about specific numbers. Bids will depend not only on the value of money, but also the risk that is affected by including the unemployment rate, the level of wages, which declined for a number of enterprises. Thus, the customers of which the bank is ready to lend, is getting smaller. Good borrowers will not borrow at high interest rates. Therefore, they are also likely to be reduced, but the proportion of approved applications for loans likely will not increase. ”
Dmitry Jurin, deputy chairman of MDM Bank:
Reduced key rates by 1-1.5 percentage points It was entirely predictable. After a sharp rise in December 2014 the market will stabilize, the indicators are gradually returning to the values fall. The inflow of deposits of the population is not as active as in December and January, but comparable with the previous year. So in May, most banks will adjust slightly deposit rates, within 1 percentage point With regard to loans, in my opinion, significant reductions in interest rates is not expected, this process will be very carefully and gradually. Interest rates on mortgages and if change, only slightly – the mortgage has already responded to government subsidies, and it is unlikely now possible to further decrease.
Alexander Krasnov, Anastasia Stogney
Quote.rbc.ru
Photo: Yekaterina Kuzmina / RBC’s
No comments:
Post a Comment