The following year, the crisis will end, the economy will rise from minus 3% to plus once 2.3%. And then did accelerate to 4% per year. With such a forecast to President Vladimir Putin set the task of GDP growth rates higher than the average, was made head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev. Experts, however, see no reason for the positive: growth undermine sanctions, oil prices and capital outflows.
In 2015, Russia will continue to decline – up to 3%, will fall in retail turnover, as well as the decline in real wages. But next year the crisis is over. Bypassing the stabilization, the economy immediately vyydetna growth. “In the basic version in 2016 growth – 2.3% in 2017-2018 – 2.5%,” – said Ulyukayev after the meeting, the president and the members of the government.
On what is the optimism Ulyukayev not very clear. He himself admitted that the return of the pre-crisis price of oil in the forecast is not laid. Oil and grow if it is not much and not right away. The forecast on oil prices in the years 2015-2018 looks like a children’s Counting. “We have oil for years laid – $ 50, $ 60, $ 70, $ 80 per barrel,” – the Minister has given the forecast. Western sanctions and embargo Russia respectively response in the forecast included. So this is not a reason for optimism.
In addition, the outflow of capital, albeit at reduced. In 2015, the outflow is projected at $ 110 billion, and by the end of 2018 it should be reduced to $ 50 billion a year, I’m sure Ulyukayev. Despite continued capital flight from Russia and the low price of oil, the ruble will be strengthened, said Ulyukayev. Dollar this year will cost an average of 61 rubles.
«In the base case forecast for the current year – is 61 rubles per dollar, then – the gradual strengthening to the level of 52-53 rubles to the dollar in 2018,” – said Ulyukayev .
Do not add reasons for optimism and the recognition of the fact that this year will decline in retail sales and the decline in real wages of the population. But then consumer demand will go up.
Next year will be remarkable by the fact that the inflation rate will begin to decline – to 12% from December to December, and in early 2016, inflation will be unique, about 7% of the small.
«This means that once again become positive in real wages, retail trade, moreover, recovering investment activity”, – said the minister. In 2017, Russia’s economy will grow higher than the average rates, ie more than 4% per year, Ulyukayev promised
It is not known how Vladimir Putin responded to the forecast of Economic Development, as the meeting was held behind closed doors.
But in the open part of Putin’s cabinet advised not to abandon ambitious plans for economic growth. These plans, Putin said, were placed in the President’s message to the Federal Assembly at the end of last year.
«Today it seems that it is hard to reach targets, but it’s still a guidance that we do not just have to keep in mind, and we must do all that at least in the medium term, overcoming the difficulties of today, associated with market volatility associated with the known destructive actions of our partners in the international arena in the field of economics, to go to achieve is precisely the parameters which has been said, “- Putin said. In a message to Putin set the goal to achieve growth rates higher than the average of the Russian economy in the next three to four years.
A Western sanctions proposed to be considered “only incentives to achieve.” So the government, no one is exempt from these plans, and Ulyukayev just remembers them.
Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in late March predicted Russia’s withdrawal from the economic crisis only a few years. “My predictions are as follows: 2015-16 years will be negative economic growth,” – said Kudrin.
On Wednesday, at the same time with the forecast of Economic Development, was published forecast of the World Bank’s “Home new economic era? »
In the baseline scenario, the World Bank has warned that the impact of sanctions and the decline in oil prices ($ 56.9 per barrel in 2016 to continue that provoke prolonged recession.
The World Bank has lowered the forecast of Russia’s GDP in 2015, a drop of 3.8% in 2016, the Russian economy will shrink by 0.3%. Inflation in Russia, according to World Bank projections, in 2015 will average 16.5% in 2016 – 8%. In the next 2 years will continue to reduce consumption, the level of investment demand will be low, high inflation, including by raising government spending in connection with the elections to the State Duma in 2016. Russian Experts also do not share the optimism of Economic Development.
«Pretty contrasting looks long-term forecast acceleration of GDP to more than 2% in 2017-2018. In the context of the conservation of the sanctions regime is seen as overly optimistic, given the need to adjust to trade in an external shocks, and the imposition of restrictions, the reorientation of the debt market and a reduction in resources for state support, “- said Maria Pomelnikova, macro-analyst” Raiffeisenbank “.
According to her, in 2016, growth will be mainly character rebound after an impressive economic decline expected this year.
Improving basically could trigger activation of pent-up demand of the population, defrosting which will contribute to slowing the fall in real wages due to lower inflation and stabilization of the ruble. “However, the forecast oil prices (from $ 50 to $ 60 dollars. / Bbl.) In 2016 would look more logical standby recovery growth to within 1%,” – said the expert.
Chief Strategist Deutsche Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik also sees no reason for the growth.
«The Russian economy before the introduction of Western sanctions and relatively high oil over $ 80 a barrel a couple of years hanging near zero. Thereby begin to rise is not very clear, “- says Lissovolik.
Optimism Ulyukayev but may be based on the fact that the external economic background improves. Restoring growth significantly not only in the US but also in the euro area. There are signs of some stabilization in Russia. “The outflow of capital is still large, but it looks like he will stabilize. If the trend is entrenched, it will increase investment, and these factors will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble, “- hopes Lissovolik. 
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