In Russia, the barrel will cost $ 40 – Moskovsky Komsomolets

The budget of 2017 will be calculated on the basis of this index

Yesterday, 18:00 Views: 2422

The Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev first governmental meeting on the formation of the budget for the 2017-2019 years. He stressed that the domestic treasury must be filled on the basis of the cost of a barrel to $ 40. Now the cost of “black gold” is about $ 50. However, the prime minister warned that we should not delude ourselves: “to improve the situation on the oil markets, we should not be deceived.”

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

In the past two years, oil prices Terebilo probably just as bad as ever history of the commodity stock exchanges. In the summer of 2014 a barrel was worth about $ 125, and now give him about $ 50. But in January, “barrel” fell below $ 30 – and predicted that there will be $ 25

It would be the collapse of the Russian budget. . This year the treasury has been formed based on the cost of a barrel to $ 50. This was too optimistic forecast. According to Rosstat, in the I quarter of the cost of “barrels” it was only $ 33. Of course, now we see the opposite trend. In early June quotes a barrel reached $ 52. The reasons for this rise were data from the US, where the fall not only production, but also the fuel supplies.

However, earlier this week, oil prices began to fall again. The culprits were speculators: some hope for a decision of the Federal Reserve services, which may increase the refinancing rate, which will increase the dollar and increase the interest of market players in the US currency (then oil prices will inevitably decline); other speculators now shift their investments in other instruments, such as gold, quotations for which have increased since the beginning of the year by 21%.

The truth is, anyway, hope that oil still will please both miners have and its market resellers, still exists. For example, the head of one of Russia’s largest mining companies predicted the oil shortage and competition for share of the energy markets. He noted that there will come a period of sustained growth in oil prices, as global demand continues to grow, and the production is reduced.

The same is confirmed by the International Energy Agency, which has raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2016 1.3 million barrels compared with 2015. According to the IEA forecast, the decline in oil production outside OPEC in 2016 will amount to 900 th. Barrels per day. OPEC production fell in May compared to April to 110 thousand. Barrels.

This applies to Russia in the most direct way. Speaking at the State Duma, the Chairman of the Budget Andrey Makarov, the committee stressed that the Bank of Russia forecasts much more accurately than the Ministry of Economic Development forecasts.

The Ministry Elvira Nabiullina believes that oil prices have on average in the near future will not exceed $ 40. that is why Dmitry Medvedev has warned his subordinates that the barrel above $ 50 should not count.

so, it is necessary to reduce the social and military spending. Therefore, funds for the indexation of pensions may not be enough.