“The News” found two analysts who long before the sharp devaluation of the ruble predicted happened jump of the dollar and the euro. Now, in their estimation, the market expects short-term stabilization, after which the ruble weakened again.
Predicting autumn surge of foreign currency to any of the investment banks failed in January the largest of them predicted that the average for end of the year the dollar will cost 35 rubles, euros – 45.4. Then, the most optimistic forecast given bank “Opening capital”: dollar exchange rate was 32.3 rubles, euros – 45. The least optimistic expectations were at Citi, Bank predicted that the dollar will cost 34.5 rubles, euros – 48.4. Even Saxo Bank, who loves to make extravagant gloomy forecasts in January said that before the end of the year the ruble falls “to 37 rubles for $ 1 or less.” However, until the end of the year and a half more months, but in such courses on the market for almost no one believes.
In September, when the editors of the online media do not lose the opportunity to make headlines every day about the historical the maximum of the dollar and the euro, banks are expected to strengthen the national currency. On average, the bank expects that the dollar will tend to mark the area of 37 rubles and euros – 48 rubles.
Now it is possible to emphasize the fact that in January 2014 it was announced in the context of the first deputy chairman Ksenia Yudaeva – in an interview with American newspaper Wall Street Journal it, among other things, said that banks “easily” be able to survive the devaluation of 25-30%. On January 20, when published interview, November 7 ruble sank 42%. November 7 Central Bank said that during October to stabilize the ruble spent $ 30 billion (in the form of intervention) and that “the assessment of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the package of measures and the depreciation of the incident further weakening of the ruble is not required to achieve the balance of payments.”
Among the forecasts of analysts who have been to date, conservative, some expect the active ruble devaluation. For example, the director of the Institute of Strategic Analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev said in March a number of publications (“MK”, ”Metro”, “Poster”) that “the average exchange rate will be at least 45-50 rubles. Per dollar,” and that ” 55-60 rubles per euro “- this is an optimistic estimate. He notes that the depreciation of the ruble may affect the aggravation of the political situation, the gain in net capital outflows from Russia to $ 150-200 billion for the year, the fall in oil prices, the decline in the construction sector, the reduction of investment in fixed assets, minimize quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve System.
– In this case, even ordinary citizens will prefer to keep their savings in foreign currency. This will further increase the pressure, – says Nikolay. – This, incidentally, confirms the August 2008 events in South Ossetia. It was after them with a stable ruble 23 rubles per dollar became noticeably weaken – reversal occurred. By the end of 2008, he was already in the region of 30, and at the beginning of 2009 even jumped over 35. Although, remember, if the macroeconomic indicators of the domestic economy was far better: GDP growth, capital flight was much less than now.
Also 40-45 rubles per dollar in March predicted (edition of “Yesterday”), a private management from Yekaterinburg Vitaly Kalugin – briefly arguing “for political reasons”, that is on the background of sanctions.
On Friday, in the course of trading on the MICEX dollar hit a record 48.64 ruble, euro also rose 60.27 rubles. Commenting on the current situation with the exchange rate analysts previously correctly predicted the fate of the ruble, believe that in the near future, the currency will weaken, and the next year the dollar may cost 60-65 rubles.
– On weakening of the ruble affected macroeconomic reasons that determined the dynamics and we now see – says Igor Nikolayev. – The economy is now almost not growing. On the state of the economy affects, for example, the tax burden, which is now growing in the future will become more and more. Influence, of course, and falling oil prices, given that we have not been able so far to reduce its dependence on oil and gas. There are other reasons for which we can not influence. For example, the policy of the US Federal Reserve. But even here, we knew that the quantitative easing program is not infinite. Influenced, of course, and sanctions. One of the most powerful measures was to limit to external sources of financing. Accordingly, when the companies and banks do not get to borrow dollars in the foreign market, and debts must be given in the same dollars and have to take them inside the country, the currency becomes less and its price increases.
However, Kalugin binds sharp weakening of the ruble exclusively with speculation on the currency market.
– If people expect the dollar today is worth 40 rubles, and tomorrow will cost 45 rubles, they certainly run its buying. For it can not blame them – he says. – Accordingly, as long as they have no limits, it samoraskruchivayuschayasya spiral. The further weakening ruble, the more this movement joins new players. And until the CB is not limited to, panic covers all the wider population. And speculators, knowing that they will be given the opportunity to sell the dollar to the maximum, for example, individuals are buying it at any price.
Today is associated with fluctuations in the ruble speculation and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. In the near future, the course will be strengthened, he said the news agencies. However, experts disagree.
– dollar – is now a function of politics, not economics – said Kalugin. – Even if the oil price will rise to over $ 100 per barrel, the ruble will remain weak. In February 2009, the dollar was worth 36 rubles, while the oil was $ 42 a barrel.
Kalugin expects that the New Year will return to the dollar mark in 41-42 rubles, but it will only short-term appreciation, he says. In 2015, the dollar will start to seriously go up, he said, but refrained from forecasts. From the fact that since 2015 the dollar will rise in price, and Igor Nikolaev agree, however, on New Year’s bounce up the ruble, he believes. He predicts the rise of the dollar in the near future to 55 rubles:
– In December and January will be a very difficult situation when Russian companies will have to pay corporate debts in dollars, about $ 32-33 billion per month . I predict that by the end of the year the dollar will rise to 55 rubles, and the euro will rise to 70 rubles. In 2015, the average annual dollar will cost about 60-65 rubles – sure Nicholas. – Since 2015, of course, slow down the pace of ruble depreciation. The price of oil will not fall as intense as it is now (since July it fell by almost 30%). It can be reduced by 10-15%, but not more. And then it will switch to a floating rate.
Now stop the weakening of the ruble is not got no way, I’m sure Nikolaev.
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