Elvira recommends that the Russians to keep their savings in rubles – TASS

MOSCOW, December 16. /TASS/. The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina recommends that the Russians to keep their savings in rubles.

she stated at a press conference.

“do you think what can I advise? Of course, in rubles. Moreover, inflation is declining and will continue to decline,” she said, answering the question in what currency it is advised to keep funds. “Ruble savings will not be eaten by inflation, and rates are now higher than inflation. They are positive”, – said the head of the Bank of Russia.

she did not name the banks that would encourage the citizens to store the savings. “I repeat the answer – we do not comment on operating banks. Especially don’t call them names (names of banks), what to carry”, – said the head of the Central Bank.

Nabiullina noted that the Central Bank expects to end the year inflation in Russia at the level of 5.4-5.8 percent. “According to our estimates on 12 December, the annual rate of consumer price growth declined to 5.6%. Accumulated since the beginning of the year inflation in November was 5% – a historic low for the entire history of observations. At the end of the year we expect inflation of 5.4-5.8 percent,” she said.

the cumulative inflation in Russia in November reached a historic low and amounted to 5%, Nabiullina also said.

Development of the Russian economy

According to her, the economic situation development in Russia as a whole corresponds to expectations of the Bank of Russia.

“the Development of the economic situation in General met our expectations. Inflation slowed in line with forecast, the economy began to enter a phase of recovery, inflationary risks associated with fiscal policy, has decreased,” – said Nabiullina, noting that inflation expectations are falling, but not yet meet the level of achievement of the inflation target.

Nabiullina said that the rate of growth of the Russian economy can be above 1.5-2% per year, with the implementation of the country structural reforms. “In 2017, GDP growth will be positive in the implementation of the baseline scenario, in the next two years economic growth will accelerate to 1.5-2%. The pace of economic growth may be higher in case of implementation of structural reforms,” she said.

Key rate

the Beginning of the reduction of the key rate of the CBR is most likely in the second quarter of 2017 than in the first. “We believe that the beginning of a rate cut more likely in the second quarter than in the first,” said Elvira.

In September, the head of the CBR said that the Bank of Russia will consider the possibility of lowering the key rate no earlier than the first and second quarter 2017.

Situation with crediting

the Bank of Russia will continue to monitor closely the segment of retail lending, said the head of the Central Bank. “As for retail lending, it has declined substantially in the last two years. Now this segment is starting to recover faster than corporate lending. At current scale, this process does not prevent the decline of inflation”, – said the Chairman of the Central Bank.

“At the same time, if the growth of retail lending will be significantly ahead of the economic recovery, it may carry risks to financial stability. If will steadily overtake the increase of incomes of the population, risks to financial stability. Therefore, we will continue to monitor closely the situation in this sphere”, – said the head of the Central Bank.

the Profit of the banking sector

the Bank of Russia expects that the profit of the banking sector in 2016 will be about 1 trillion rubles, said Nabiullina. “This year we are seeing a recovery of profitability of the banking sector, last year was the failure of the profit. This was understandable, because the banks lost and net interest income, and were forced to build large reserves,” she said.

“this year the profit of banks increased, I think that will be somewhere plus or minus 1 trillion. It is connected including with the fact that banks have regained their interest income and created fewer reserves,” said Elvira.

oil price

the Results of the U.S. elections and an agreement by OPEC to reduce oil production increased the likelihood of a scenario with higher oil prices, said Elvira.

“Two significant world events affected the situation on the global markets the last few months is the election results in the United States and the achievement of agreements and other OPEC exporters to limit production of oil. Assessment of the cumulative impact of these events allows us to talk about the increased likelihood of a scenario with higher oil prices,” she said.

At the same time Nabiullina said that the Central Bank still retains a conservative approach to forecasting oil prices and provides an average price for Urals oil of $ 40 a barrel, “throughout the forecast period”.

According to her, the Central Bank does not expect excessive strengthening of the ruble against the decision to cut oil production. “No, we do not expect such a strengthening of the ruble, which would have carried risks to financial stability,” she said.

capital Outflow

According to Nabiullina, the outflow of capital from the country will amount to about $ 17 billion.

“the Outflow of capital from Russia, according to our estimate, be less than $ 20 billion, but could be around $ 17 billion. ceteris paribus, the flow of funds and the privatization of “Rosneft”, once again I say – other things being equal, this capital inflow, but we need to see when it will be reflected in this or next year. For us, some part may be this year, some next year. For us it is very important that this does not create excessive short-term volatility in the domestic market. This year is not reflected entire amount in capital inflows”, – said Nabiullina.