demand indicators indicate that the recession continues to turn in the direction of economic growth has not occurred, the HSE experts say. According to authorities, the bottom of the crisis has been passed yet in 2015.
At the end of May, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the bottom of the crisis was passed back in 2015, and Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev earlier estimated that “the deepest part “of the crisis has been passed by the middle of 2015. Disagree economists Higher School of Economics: the growth in demand points to the fact that the bottom is passed there was no crisis, the economy is still deepening recession, says a leading expert of the Center of Higher School of Economics Nikolai Kondrashov fresh “Commentaries on the state and business” <. / p>
The demand does not grow
The dynamics of GDP is determined by parameters of demand and stocks, Kondrashov writes. Latest – extremely volatile, so to determine the moment when the economy goes to the growth, maybe “more correct” to use it demand indicators. Indicator of final domestic demand – a seasonally adjusted changes in indices of retail trade turnover and paid services to the population and construction. It reflects the demand for a the population and business. This index is “historically exhibits a stable dynamics” than the index of basic industries. During the crisis of 2008-2009 it took a year to the figure began to grow.
In contrast, the index of basic industries, which really began to grow in the middle of 2015, the index continued to decline and demand after a phase of sharp decline in 2015. “That is, the production increase (release of basic industries), which was observed in the second half of 2015 and which gave many hope that the bottom of the crisis passed, much has been achieved temporary positive contribution factor stocks that misled about the economy transition prospects to sustainable recovery, “- writes Kondrashov. Thus, the dynamics of the consumer index points to a continuation of the recession. And in April 2016 and the release of key economic branches resumed its decline, a decline of 1.9% the previous month, after rising in February and March. “According to our estimates, if the level of economic activity, as measured by the index of basic industries to remain at the level of April, the decline in GDP for the year will be more than 1.5%”, -. Sums up the expert
At the same time, analysts of Bank of Russia in late May, wrote that the expected ‘output of the economy on the path of slow growth in the coming months in the absence of new external shocks. ” It was the growth by sectors related to domestic demand. “Statistics show that the trade and consumer activity gradually emerge from the peak, although it remains low”, – stated in the review of the Central Bank. “We hope that somewhere in the middle of the year we will come to zero, will gradually restore positive economic growth”, – said a little earlier Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev (quoted by the agency “Prime»)
. economic activity has resumed drop
«After seven months as a whole neutral dynamics of economic activity is likely heading for reduction”, – Kondrashov said. “Perhaps this should be treated not as a reversal of the dynamics as well as an extension of the deep trends that are increasingly reflected in makrostatistiki”, – says the expert
The retail trade turnover decreased by 0.3% in April. he falls almost continuously for the past 16 months. Decreased paid services – by 0.4% after rising 0.8% in March. This indicator has stagnated over the past two quarters, the HSE said the expert. Wholesale trade declined in April by 5.2% after rising 6.9% in the previous two months, but the author of the review notes the high volatility and unreliability of the statistics in this sector. Construction fell by 5.8%, being below the level of July and August 2015, “which had previously been the lowest point of the current crisis».
As predicted in the last issue of monitoring the development of the HSE Center, there is a rollback positive statistics industry in the negative region: there was a correction of data mining – from the growth of 4.3% in February and March to a reduction of 3.5% in April, and as a result, the mining sector growing by 2.9% in February-March gave way to a fall of 2.8% in April.
The crisis is worse than the previous
When comparing the current crisis with the previous, 1998-1999 and 2008-2009 , another expert of the Center for the HSE, Valery Mironov noted that the situation is different in the unfavorable directions. During the last two crises, the economy emerged from recession in five quarters after the start of the recession, with the sixth quarter both times there was a marked rebound in GDP and growth driver acted industry, Mironov says. Now the economy is shrinking for five quarters, and if the analogy is correct, then in the second quarter of 2016 should be fixed GDP growth.
However, in April 2016 removed from the seasonality of the industry growth was not, Mironov said. And although in some sectors there have been positive trends, in order to continued recovery, it should improve the dynamics of investment. In the first quarter of 2016 investment fell, according to Rosstat, by 4.8% yoy. This major sectors – oil refining and food industries – are beginning to lose the growth due to lower external and domestic demand, says the expert. “Green shoots” in the industry can quickly fade, he warns, and the rebound of the economy is not guaranteed.
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