The Central Bank has considered the optimistic scenario with the price of oil around $ 50 – RIA Novosti

18:06 10.06.2016

(updated: 18:29 10.06.2016 )

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MOSCOW, June 10 – RIA Novosti The Bank of Russia in addition to the basic and risk considered optimistic scenario with the price of oil around $ 50 a barrel, should be the regulator of the report on monetary policy

Bank of Russia.. expect decline in prices for Urals oil from $ 48 a barrel to $ 40 in the third quarter of this year and save an average price close to that level in 2017-2018. The regulator has also improved in the baseline forecast the dynamics of GDP in 2016 to decline to 0.3-0.7% (previously expected to reduce GDP by 1.3-1.5%).

The Bank of risky scenario predicts GDP contraction of 0.9-1.2% in 2016-2017 when the pledged price of oil at $ 25 per barrel.

Bank of optimistic scenario assumes that the price oil stabilized on average close to 50 dollars per barrel. Proceeds from exports in the years 2017-2018 in this case will be significantly higher than in the baseline scenario.

“In the case of the optimistic scenario prerequisites expected more confident than in the baseline scenario, the recovery in economic activity. In 2016 year is projected close to zero GDP growth, and in the years 2017-2018, GDP growth is expected in the range of 1.5-2%, “- said in a report

a more rapid economic recovery and a higher rate of the ruble. compared to the baseline scenario will contribute to the acceleration of import growth. As a result, the current account balance in these years will be slightly higher than in the baseline scenario (on the order of 35-40 billion dollars compared to 25-30 billion dollars), said the regulator. The volume of capital outflows under the optimistic scenario also slightly exceeded the corresponding figure of the baseline scenario.