– Tatyana A., the first issue of discussion at the forum around the optimal structure of the budget. Yesterday, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov made for people to reduce the budget deficit. You practice the opposite position, and said yesterday that this may reduce the level of life of citizens. The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said today that the standard of living is also reduced due to inflation, and its budget deficit provokes. How to find the optimum balance?
– Rather, we adhere to different positions with Anton Germanovich (Siluanov), it is a more careful planning of the expenses that we include in the budget, and the more effective they use. I worked in the Ministry of Finance, and is now working in the control body, so I have reason to believe that within the budget there are certain provisions which make it possible to rearrange priorities. Moreover, outside the budget have reserves which the budget is already created, transferring funds to state companies, state corporations as a contribution to the charter capital.
But the money has not yet fulfilled the purposes for which intended. When we are discussing the budget, we adhere to the Minister of Finance a common position: it is necessary to achieve that goal, which is fixed in the budget in 2016 to 3 per cent deficit, and, of course, move in the direction of its gradual decline, though at a future three-year, in 2017- 2019, it will be a challenge. Planning should be very careful.
All the arguments about whether to save in nominal terms, reduce or increase the (budget), it seems to me senseless, until we get real benefits from what we give. It’s a long time nobody valued, we somehow always handed over, without engaging the result
– You have something to evaluate and know where these reserves:. On deposit or unproven advances
– Chairman of the Central Bank has often said recently that the deposits grow, in part because that to get budget money. For example, we never wondered how much we have invested in recent years in the development of these or other institutions? We have them for more than thirty, all of them we have supported through various injections. During the period from 2008 to 2015, we were sent to development institutions 4.1 trillion rubles. For comparison, the $ 16 trillion of our budget spending.
There are, in addition, direct budgetary investments, and it is believed that we have to build this component inherent in the federal targeted investment program (FAIP). But in recent years we are witnessing a paradox: in the period from 2009 to 2015 on FAIP spent 6 trillion rubles, but if it was performed at the level of 98.2% in 2009, but now, in a crisis, when it would seem, there is no money. she began to perform worse than – the level of performance already 93%
He suffers from the quality of planning.. A huge number of objects is included, and only 30% remains unchanged. In 2015, there were more than 1,600 objects, most of them during the year have been replaced by others, or altered. We think that we invest money and obtain a certain result, but really do not get it.
If we seriously approached this issue and when planning the budget strictly evaluated all previously accumulated reserves, previously gave the money, then the structure of the budget have changed significantly and we would not be in the discussion, and where to find the money for pensions or other expenses
-. and who is not serious about? What are the main offices of the claims
-? The quality of budget planning has claims to all departments, and here, in my view, seriously affected the financial management. Managers used to, that the budget is formed on the basis of lobbying. The Ministry of Finance notifies the recipient’s limited resources. In the (main) volume recipients include costs that the Ministry of Finance is unlikely to approve without the order of the president or prime minister. And only then Minister again turn to the Ministry of Finance for the additional costs that arise from the orders of president and prime minister. Since forming the budget.
As we see the security check, that these volumes are not met, the money is not used, especially in the departments responsible for major investment projects. And the Ministry of Transport with the Federal Road Agency, responsible for the construction of roads and Rosaviation suffer from this. Not very large balances in social agencies, but still they are associated with poor planning.
And it happens that the money in the POS, as they say financiers, used, that is not left on the account, but they are embedded in an advances, and the result is not received
-. you often mention the problem of receivables that arise when the advance paid, but the work on it is not carried out
January 1, 2016 -. Why can not cope with this problem
– We are the first time the Ministry of Finance drew attention to this relatively recently started to be engaged since last year. This is not an easy problem, coupled with the inventory contracts. A large amount of accumulated, and it takes time. What has been done already? The budget law includes an article suggesting treasury support for major contracts. In 2015, it had contracts worth over a billion rubles, now – more than 100 million rubles. Treasury support suggests that the funds allocated from the budget, when it made the work, not given by the simple advance.
In addition, today approved a plan to work with accounts receivable. He assumes the responsibility of those who made the arrears and its growth. We hope that 2016 will contribute to correcting this situation. Otherwise, we will have a very big problem with the balanced budget in the years 2017-2019
-. Do you have any concrete plan on how much you want to reduce the debt this year
– speaking in principle on the amount of potential savings, then with careful planning and the use of all the opportunities we can save up to a trillion rubles
-. Earlier this year, the Ministry of Finance announced the reduction of budget expenditures by 10%, following five months on how much really has been reduced
– Who is it too early to speak: The Ministry of Finance has not yet cut costs, but just not finished limits (to recipient ) on 10%. Will they be brought or not, will be decided by November and reflected in amendments to the budget. While the mechanism is introduced tougher enforcement costs: generated cash plan, quarterly limit
Probably, to assess the situation better now by income rather than expenditure.. Now we figured that if we assume that the price of oil in the second half of the year will be $ 40 per barrel, and now it is higher, then the shortfall of income without one-time sources will be about 1.4-1.5 trillion rubles. How can we compensate for this? Proceeds from the sale of non-recurring income “Rosneftegas”, for example – it is about 500 billion rubles. If the oil price will be higher, we will get additional revenue. There are provisions for the entry of VAT and income taxes – a set of measures that can make a difference. Therefore, a more correct assessment can only be made in September
-. All budget challenges and future risks are somehow related to the social sphere. We know that the Chamber of Accounts regularly monitors the situation, including analyzes of health reform. You often criticize, talk about reducing the availability of free medical services. The Ministry of Health responds to your comments
-? I would say that not only the Ministry of Health it is necessary to build a dialogue. The fact that we capture to occur in regions of the country, where you can observe this trend when implemented national projects, and at the federal level this was attention, and governors are accountable – there were serious positive changes. As soon as the federal center, as it should be, said: this is your competence, and go into free mode of observation regions, fixed many shortcomings
A clear reduction in the availability of medical services we are witnessing in rural areas.. We are now completing the control measures under the orders of the President on the accessibility of the social sphere as a whole, both in health and in education, in culture and in social services. And, unfortunately, we see the trend continuing decline in opportunities for social services in rural areas.
Positive figures for (reduction of) mortality are very sensitive to these changes. If we do not engage in high-quality provision of services out there, especially in health care, we will see a negative contribution to mortality and life expectancy of the population there.
In my opinion, now we need a very substantively engage in the country’s regions .
– At the federal level
-? Yes. Monitor, to study, to avoid mindless cuts. I believe that all the “road map” signed by the regions with the federal ministries sotsbloka network optimization, to achieve certain indicators by 2018, should be reviewed in today’s reality. We studied 2014: optimization in terms of contribution to the increase in salary provided for only 1%. But in terms of the availability of medical services it has given a very serious (negative) contribution
-. This problem is related to performance in the May presidential decree, including salaries. A recent report by the Chamber of Accounts states that you can see their risk of default. How do we get the regions missing money that they are now assessed cumulatively in half
-? The problem, in my opinion, is that Russia at the federal level, she did not appreciate the value of (the May decrees) – it was given to the competence of the regions. Accordingly, each region, based on their considerations and methodology, estimated the cost of this. So when we at the federal level we give to such a problem so much money – no one knows enough of it or not
Regions say half a trillion is not enough, and it seems to me that today, on the threshold. the budget for the next three-year, taking into account zakreditovannost regions and volumes of debt -. 2.3 trillion rubles, we still have to drop everything and look for a unified methodology, these indicators are integrated into the regional budgets or not. It is now easy possible to estimate, especially since began an inventory of office subjects
May decrees -. It’s not some news which has fallen upon us, it’s all the same powers, which previously carried out by simply these decrees on individual problems, which for many years did not dare, drawn more attention. And when they say that they were written in a more comfortable environment at a secured budget – it is right. But up to the end, no one knows, but how many do you want? I propose to assess and build orders in those budgets, which will now plan
-. And who should do the job
-? To a large extent, of course , Ministry of Finance and Ministry of economic development, but do the job, and can be, and should be
-. you will offer to do this
-? We have already offered and now it is being seriously discussed
-. and you have now an understanding of how assessment of the regions correspond to the reality
-? you know, the feasibility of the decrees depends not only the money, it still depends on the quality of management decisions. We may have money, but can not be implemented. Example – program for old and dilapidated housing. The money was, and nothing happened. I’m not even talking now about the fact that someone has used them inappropriately. Just administrative part suffers. The same care – someone has to look at these figures: look after them, driving their subordinates
– you are still generally optimistic about the near future
– Yes, I am an optimist in life. Although this work is now optimism is not added, but I am an optimist in another sense: that there are no unsolvable problems. We have largely themselves to blame that we are not going on.
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