Stress test predicted the fall of the stock market of the EU by 24% in the case of Brexit – RBC

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The decision of the UK to leave the EU population (Brexit) can lead to a drop in European stock market by nearly a quarter. These are the results of stress tests conducted by the company Axioma

European stocks could fall by 24% if a referendum on June 23 United Kingdom residents to vote for from the EU countries output, Bloomberg reported with reference to the results stress test conducted by Axioma Inc.

in the course of the stress test and the nalitiki wanted to find out what impact on various assets may have a vote in Britain benefit out of the country. In order to simulate the potential impact on the market Brexit, Axioma analyze market reaction to events that had already occurred, including the European debt crisis and a referendum on Scottish independence. This influence, analysts have studied the example of a hypothetical the investment portfolio, 54% consists of bonds, 41% – of shares and 9% – from other tools. According to the stress test results revealed that the largest drop – 24% – expect action. Investments denominated in sterling, waiting for the fall of 10%, showed a stress test.

At the weakening pound and the recovery of the mining sector and the ktsii British companies this year were among the leaders on growth in Europe. But n of data Axioma, they are most at risk.

«There is speculation that Brexit not going to happen. If this happens, no one will be mentally prepared for it, “- said one of the study’s authors Philip Jacob. “(In this case) we will see serious progress on the market”, – he said

The Axioma emphasized that the stress test results show a short-term reaction to the possible outcome of the referendum in the UK and do not allow conclusions about. structural changes in the case of the United Kingdom out of the EU

Earlier, the rating agency Standard & amp.; Poors has introduced sensitivity index Brexit . According to him, the most painful in the UK out of the EU will react to Ireland, Malta, Luxembourg and Cyprus. According to the Bureau analysis of the economic policy of the Netherlands (CPB), the effects on the UK release of the European Union hardest hit Ireland and the country Benelux . The Netherlands, which in the list of S & P took seventh place in the background Brexit could lose € 10 billion until 2030, analysts CPB.

Recent polls shows the approximate equality exit from the EU supporters and those who wish to keep the country in the community.