Print Self-Russian Bank in slowing inflation and achieving the inflation target (4%) in 2017 increased, said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. The Bank of Russia on June 10 cut its key rate by 0.5% to 10.5%. “We are confident that we can reduce inflation to the target level even in the case of the inflation risks. But for this we need to maintain a cautious and measured approach, supporting moderate rigidity of monetary policy.
In the future, we can consider the possibility of reduce the key rate only when inflation deceleration in accordance with the forecast, as well as reducing inflationary expectations.
The economic situation is normalized, the dynamics of the economy and inflation develops better than we expected. inflation risks generally decreased. However, more risks remain associated with the internal factors, the inertia of inflation expectations and the uncertainty of fiscal policy “- said Nabiullina, according to” Interfax “.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank may soon conduct a test placement of Bank of Russia bonds. “In order to control money market rates with surplus we will use regular operations to absorb excess liquidity, deposit transactions, instead of providing liquidity operations banks, which is currently underway.
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in the future also plans to organize the release of the Bank of Russia’s bonds Their placement in the near future “will be held in the test mode, -. explained the head of the Central Bank.
The Bank of Russia does not see the need to use the instrument of the Bank of Russia bonds (OBR) for liquidity management, but in the next two or three months, the Central Bank is ready to test this tool.
“As for the issue of the Bank of Russia’s bonds we are in terms of liquidity do not see such a need, because we are in a small but tool for a long time we have not produced a structural liquidity shortage.. Therefore, we are ready in the near future in the next two months -treh months to conduct a test placement of a few tens of billions of rubles, to see how it will be in demand, this tool “- said Nabiullina.
The Bank of Russia should be ready to understand the preferences of the market. “We are ready to (OBR -. Ed.) To do even when the persistent structural liquidity deficit, to try out this tool,” – he added the head of the Central Bank.
According to Nabiullina, the transition to the structural liquidity surplus happen in 2017, “There is a structural liquidity deficit, but its value has decreased significantly compared to the peaks of last year. We take into account that the transition to the liquidity surplus will occur in next year, that is a little later than we expected, as the costs of federal funds should be reduced in a more favorable external environment.
at the Central Bank has all the necessary tools to the liquidity surplus, firstly, to ensure operational control over money market rates and, secondly, to maintain moderate rigidity of monetary conditions.
The Russian banking sector has lived in a liquidity surplus. This situation is not new for us. ..
deciding on the key rate, we also took into account that there is a factor that leads to softening of monetary conditions, even with unchanged key rate – is the transition of the banking sector to a surplus of liquidity in relation to the expenditure of federal funds funds.
In a situation of surplus banks do not feel the need to attract funds from the Central Bank and the start, on the contrary, to place funds in the Central Bank. In such circumstances, banks may cut rates on deposits, and then mitigate the price and non-price credit conditions at a constant key rate “, – said the head of the Central Bank
Until the end of 2017, the Central Bank expects to repay the debt of banks on foreign currency repo transactions. . “Based on our calculations on the fact that up to the end of 2017, the outstanding repurchase will be paid equally. Central Bank lays in the projections to the end of 2017, the increase in international reserves to $ 22.5 billion due to the return of funds on foreign exchange repo “- Nabiullina emphasized
.” The Bank of Russia took a decision in principle to abolish the anti-crisis regulatory exemptions in respect of unsecured consumer loans. The expansion of this segment of lending rates, faster recovery of income of the population, can carry inflationary risks. As far as our active operations to enter the foreign exchange market for the purchase of reserves, we are in our base case scenario does not lay such a possibility before the end of 2018, but will watch the situation “, – said the head of the Central Bank
.” with regard to the decision of the US Federal Reserve, we are in the forecasts assume that the increase will take place smoothly and effectively managing market expectations. We consider our forecast as a possible scenario, one or two increase this year “, – said Nabiullina
.” With respect to the balance of payments in the forecast horizon, then this side we do not see significant risks. Reducing external debt passes slowly and quietly. We expect that in the 2016-2018 gg. the value of net capital outflows, ie the difference between the outflow and inflow of capital into the country will remain at a low level by historical standards -. not more than $ 25-30 billion
There are several reasons. First, the outflow of capital in the form of payments on external debt will be reduced according to the schedule of repayment of external debt. In addition, the current data show that companies and banks may refinance a significant share of the debt, even under sanctions.
Second, the gradual improvement in the economy, they also will be able to actively raise funds in foreign markets.
Third, the possibility of increasing investments in foreign assets will be limited to low rates of economic growth and income, as well as the preservation of the differential between the placement rates of funds in Russia and abroad, the tightening of rules of opening deposits in foreign jurisdictions “- He concluded the head of the Central Bank.
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