The International energy agency in its “Medium-term natural gas market report” lowered forecast for global energy demand. According to the agency, the balance of supply and demand should not be expected until 2021.
In the period from 2015 to 2021 demand for gas will increase annually by 1.5%, lower than the previous six-year forecasts, Bloomberg reported, citing the presentation of the “Mid-term natural gas market report” presented on Wednesday by the International energy Agency (IEA) in Paris. Previously, the average annual demand growth in the period from 2014 to 2020 were projected at 2%, and from 2013 to 2019 -. At the level of 2,5%
The decline in demand due to reduced use of raw materials in Japan and the US where energy production is replaced by renewable energy and “very cheap” coal, the IEA says.
According to agency estimates, the excess supply will continue in the global gas markets by 2018, and the balance of supply and demand should not be expected to 2021. Production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will grow by 2021 to 45%, with 90% of this increase will occur in the United States and Australia.
The pressure on the market will return to the system of the Japanese nuclear power plant, cheap coal and Russian supplies to Europe It underlines the IEA. In Europe, consumption will grow by 0.3% after years of decline, the Russian gas supplies to limit the potential of the LNG area, the report said.
In the United States until 2021 is expected to stagnate in gas demand for the production of electricity, after rising 20% in 2015. The US government will support the use of solar and wind energy.
Gas consumption in developed Asian countries will decline during the forecast period at 0.2% per year, with a drop in demand by 11% in Japan, balanced growth in South Korea and Australia . The biggest factor affecting the volume of demand, gas consumption will be in China, which will grow annually by 9.1%. The IEA forecast, if demand from China slows down, the oversupply situation will continue for “a large part of the 2020s».
Gas production will grow from 2015 to 2021 by 1.5% annually. The slowdown in deliveries compared with the previous period due to the fall in investment as a result of lower prices and demand, the IEA says.
During this period, Russia will increase gas production to 10 billion cubic meters. m, according to “RIA Novosti” with reference to the IEA report, and the demand will decrease slightly due to weak economic growth. In 2015, gas consumption in the country decreased by 1.5% due to the economic downturn and warm weather.
In Ukraine, the demand for gas fell in 2015 by 20% and this level will continue in the medium term, according to “Prime” agency. The reasons for the IEA points to lower consumption by households in connection with the modernization of the heating system and the adoption of energy efficiency measures, as well as the ongoing recession.
The agency notes that the decline in gas demand has allowed Ukraine to reduce dependence on its supplies from Russia that from 2011 to 2015 decreased by 90%. Half of the gas consumption of Ukraine provides for the expense of its own production.
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