The meeting in Doha was too hot for frozen oil – RIA Novosti

© Photo: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

DOHA, April 18 – RIA Novosti Past Sunday in the Doha negotiations on freezing oil, which was actively discussed in February, did not produce results – number of Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia unexpectedly before the meeting changed their position and demanded participation in the agreement of all the major manufacturers

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the stumbling block was Iran, whose representatives refused to come to Doha as considered as unacceptable join the freezing of oil as long as the country does not display it on dosanktsionny volume of 4 million barrels per day.

during the day, oil producers have tried to find a compromise and take into account the interests, including countries that are not present at the meeting, correcting a draft agreement on freezing. However, in the end, after 13 hours of debate, including a formal ministerial meeting lasting about 5.5 hours, the parties were forced to admit that the agreement did not take place.

© AP Photo / Jon Gambrell

“For us it was a surprise – this morning to receive these new conditions, we still believe that if we previously discussed for several months, certain positions, especially on the eve of an agreement was reached among the experts … position changes in time before the start of the meeting, I think, a fairly rare practice in the framework of international meetings “, – said Novak reporters after the talks.

How it all began

The day before, on Saturday, experts in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia and Venezuela agreed on a draft agreement, which provided for the preservation of oil production at the level of January until October 2016. Without the participation of Iran. In addition, it was proposed to establish a special committee to monitor the implementation of the agreements.

In the morning on Sunday, many participants of the Doha negotiations were optimistic and assured journalists that the decision to freeze oil production will be taken.

Iranian oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, issued a statement promising to support the decisions that will be taken in Doha “here” (from Tehran). “Soon congratulate them (the participants) and wish them success God help them.” – Said the Minister

The meeting was supposed to start at 8.45 am.. But then the program has changed dramatically – the ministers went to the reception to the Emir of Qatar, and then to dinner at the prime minister. As a result, official meeting of oil-producing countries only began in 15.15.

The delay source RIA Novosti one delegation explained that Saudi Arabia suddenly demanded the participation of all OPEC countries in the agreement on the freezing of oil production, including Iran.

Later, Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak said that such a position also taken the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, the Gulf States suspended. “Of course, OPEC countries are often consolidated act, despite the fact that the position that has been previously been agreed upon,” – said Novak. At the same time, he said, during the meeting was not called, which is non-OPEC oil producers should be invited to the dialogue. The Russian minister has suggested that this could be, in particular, Norway and Colombia.

These adjustments came as a surprise for Russia. “Overall, we expect that we will agree Those countries who have come here, they come to an agreement, and not to discuss the need to participate in this process, even some countries.” – Said Novak. The minister stressed that demand adherence to the freezing of oil production countries, not present at the meeting, is not correct and is inappropriate.

What’s next

Novak said Russia is ready to consider the possibility of participating in the new meetings with oil-producing countries to freeze the production level, however, will not be so optimistic about the prospects for such negotiations.

Minister of petroleum Nigeria Emmanuel Kachikvu following the meeting in Doha, said that the oil-producing countries in the next time discussed the possibility of freezing production at the OPEC meeting in June. At the same time, in his opinion, in Vienna first agreed OPEC countries, and then the discussion will be conducted with other oil producers.

The same opinion is shared by Russia. “We will monitor the situation we see how there will be consultations, which will be achieved consensus within OPEC on the participation of all OPEC countries in such an agreement, in our view, OPEC should in itself to agree on the proposals, which sounded today..” – Novak said .

The decision on the possible participation of Russia itself, in a meeting with the cartel in June is still pending, and to talk about it early, Novak told RIA Novosti. According to the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, consultations will continue in the near future between the freeze on the production of oil-producing countries.

The consequences for the market

The lack of agreement on the level of oil production can not be held frozen problems for Russia, said Novak: Russian companies are still highly competitive work in the market, and the authorities do not plan to adjust the volume of their production – each company will make their own investment decisions based on the current situation

Speaking of oil prices. Novak said that the balancing of the oil market in the absence of the production freeze the agreement will take place on market grounds and can be reached by the middle of 2017.

Since the beginning of the summer of 2014 oil prices towards the end of last year have fallen by more than tripled – from 115 to 36 dollars per barrel of Brent, and in 2016 has dropped below 30 dollars. Fundamentally, the decline is explained by the high level of production in the world with slowed demand, including because of the situation in China. However, such a deep fall (below 40-50 dollars), experts link the and financial factors, including the strengthening of the dollar and the actions of speculators.

During the discussion, the idea of ​​freezing production, ie February, the price of oil has risen from 32 dollars to more than $ 40 per barrel of Brent. Of course, the results of the meeting in Doha will be a negative factor, but experts interviewed by RIA Novosti, agree in opinion that the impact will be short-term.

“In the short term, of course, we will see a rollback in oil prices, currently $ 43 per . a barrel at the end of the week of course, will go down as far as – I can not say “, – said Chairman of the Board of Directors of MDM Bank, former Deputy Finance Minister Oleg Viyugin

The price of oil during trading on Monday can dive below. $ 40 per barrel of Brent, and the dollar – to grow up to 68-69 rubles (Friday’s closing levels near 66.5 rubles), said the head of analytical department of the IR “Zurich Capital Management” Nikolai Podlevskikh

. “in the future, the next few months, most likely, we will see what the market will begin again focus more on other factors that affect the price of oil This proposal by the United States … is very important, and China.” – says the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank (EDB) Yaroslav Lissovolik.

“I think after some correction, we are likely to see is now on oil prices in the future all the same we will see the restoration of quotations, and I think, that even in the course of this year we could see oil prices above the levels that we had this week, “- the expert believes

the meeting in Doha was held on Sunday -. a day, when trading oil futures not conducted. Novak, commenting on the possible consequences for the market, offered to wait until Monday.

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