Financial analysts assess the prospects of Tatarstan after unsuccessful negotiations to freeze oil. According to them, items of income in the republic budget will not decrease significantly.
The market quickly reacted to the events in Doha, April 18 immediately after the failed negotiations the euro and the dollar rose more than 2 rubles. Recall, the participants and the OPEC countries outside the cartel, did not come to the freezing of oil agreement. The talks, which lasted about six hours, ended without the signing of the agreement. The next round may take place after the OPEC summit in June.
Today the ruble weakening was quickly replaced by growth. The reason experts see that the price was “everything is taken into account».
«Now support oil has a soft policy of the US Federal Reserve, or rather the weak dollar, which became one of the promises of the Federal Reserve to take the time to rise rates – explains Anna Kokoreva, deputy director of analytical department of “Alpari”. – Everything else came to the place of the strike in Kuwait, which led to the reduction of production in this country. Production in Kuwait has already fallen to 1.1 million barrels a day from 2.8 million barrels per day in March. Differences in oil with the authorities arose from the exclusion of the oil industry of a new project to pay gosrabotnikov. »
The Group of companies” Finam “price reduction on the news from Doha considered only a short-term negative effect. In the future, experts expect rising oil prices and, consequently, the weakening of the dollar and the euro.
«We maintain our forecast for Brent crude oil at the end of the year at around $ 50-55 per barrel. Also, it does not change the forecast and the US currency. We expect the dollar’s decline in the area of 60 rubles. As a result, the short-term negative effect on the Russian economy by the end of the year will be fully offset by “-., Said analyst Bogdan Zvarych
« Such an outcome of the negotiations was partly expect on fundamentals it affect could not, therefore, the current decline in the quotations oil is, for the most part, emotional. And most likely, will stop at major support around $ 37,8-38, then we may see a rebound and stabilize near $ 40. And this level can generally hold up to the June OPEC meeting, when possible, will be a new attempt to oil producers to agree “- says Ruslan Fatykhov, director of the Kazan branch of BCS Premier
negotiations result in Doha is not critical for the prices, according to the speaker, however it can lead to a longer period of oil prices recover this year than previously thought. : the main growth may come at the IV quarter. In support of the oil in the foreseeable future will continue to act as incentives for global central banks (softer than expected Fed policy, the NBK’s efforts to achieve the target level of GDP), recovery of the world economy (USA, Europe, the lack of “hard landing” in China) and a reduction in US production (rig count continues to fall)
«the ruble certainly for some time, will be under pressure, but the yield is above 70 per dollar, we still think it unlikely -. said the representative of the BCS. – In particular, in the coming week support the Russian currency will have a tax period. By the end of April, the pair ruble-dollar may return to the area 66-67. »
Forecast Anna Kokoreva more cautious. The expert believes that oil prices could return to the lowest level, and how many will stay there unknown, which means that “the ruble will be in difficulty.” And if the Russian companies-exporters of oil it will result in a positive effect: weak ruble will allow to recapture the losses associated with the low cost of raw materials on world markets, the country’s budget is only partly help. For ordinary citizens a new drop in oil prices will result in higher inflation and, consequently, a rise in prices for goods and services, stressed the representative of Alpari.
For Tatarstan is the current situation will not bring drastic changes, analysts say. Even in times of crisis the republic shows good results compared to other regions, so at the expense of the weak ruble income item of the budget is unlikely to decrease significantly from the republics of production.
«As for Tatarstan economy, it should be noted that the decrease in the price of oil, which can be caused by a lack of solutions in Doha, will be offset by a decrease in the national currency, with the result that the ruble indicators of oil and gas companies will remain approximately at the same level “, – Zvorich notes
« to “Tatneft”. decline in oil prices is undesirable, as the cost of production, the company is higher than that of competitors. But the region is actively developing oil refining, that in conditions of low oil prices more effectively and profitably, “- stressed Kokoreva
In the near future the” bulls “, according to experts, will continue to fight for growth of quotations.. However, further growth of Brent crude oil will prevent the resistance level at around $ 46.3 per barrel. WTI We have all chances to rise in price to $ 43.2 per barrel
«Judging by today’s market, a small shock from the breakdown of negotiations took place quickly -. Oil and the ruble again actively strengthened. Fundamental factors are more transient. Thus, for Russia as a whole and for Tatarstan fundamentally nothing has changed. We will wait for a new round of negotiations, “- sums up the head of the marketing strategy and research VTB24 Dmitry Lepetikov.
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