The Doha negotiations ended without agreement signing – RBC

The secretary general of OPEC, Abdullah al-Badri (center) in the Doha negotiations Photo: REUTERS 2016

Participants of the meeting in Doha have not come to the freezing of oil agreement. The next round of negotiations could take place after the OPEC summit, which is scheduled for June

The talks in Doha lasted about six hours, ended without the signing of the agreement. Reuters source said that OPEC said negotiating partners who are not part of the oil cartel, that they intend to achieve the first single solution within the organization at the summit, which will take place in June. Then maybe another meeting with representatives of States, non-OPEC countries, including with Russia.

The Minister of Energy and Qatar Industry Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada said that the negotiators came to the conclusion that they It takes more time for discussion, Bloomberg reported. He pointed out that the market situation has improved since the first meeting with the participation of Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela, which took place in mid-February.

According to Bloomberg, the stumbling block was the issue in the negotiations, whether covered by the agreement Iran, whose representative did not come to Doha. At that insisted in particular Saudi Arabia. As a result of an agreement on this subject did not succeed.

In response to the question, is whether the blame for the failure of the agreements on Iran, the Qatari Minister of Energy said that “freeze would be more effective if it acceded to the all major manufacturers ».

The talks, which were to begin in the morning on Sunday, eventually started around 15:30 MSK . During this time, the participants rewrite the initial draft agreement. As pointed out by Reuters, the document disappeared from the new click on the January level production, mentioned in the revised version of the agreement was to freeze production of oil “at an acceptable level,” all members of OPEC and other major producers. The new project as a result looked so blurred that the source Reuters OPEC said that “not sure if you can call it freezing» .

The initial draft of the agreement provided for the freezing of oil to 1 October 2016 at the level of January 2016. For the verification of compliance with the execution of agreements provided for creation of a special oversight committee.

In the talks attended by 18 countries -11 of the 13 members of OPEC (in Doha is not attended by representatives of Libya and Iran) as well as Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Colombia, Mexico and Oman.

Russia’s permanent representative at the OPEC Vladimir Voronkov told the news agency “RIA Novosti” that the negotiations between Moscow and the cartel on the production freeze may continue. “The question is very difficult to reconcile the positions of countries, need additional time”, – he said

According to a senior analyst at Sberbank CIB Valery Nesterov, oil price on the Doha results of the negotiations will go down in any scenario, but. will not fall below $ 30 per barrel. He pointed out that the Iranian factor in the preparation of the agreement greatly exaggerated: in spite of the announcement of its officials plans to increase oil production to 4 million barrels per day and an increase in oil exports, to increase the export of oil significantly it will interfere with the actions of competitors. Nesterov also called the failure of the talks in the Qatari capital blow to OPEC’s image has not changed position on the basis of the latest developments in the market.

Before the start of the summit, Sberbank CIB released survey which indicated that the failure of the talks in the Qatari capital will negatively affect on the price of oil and the exchange rate. “If the Doha negotiations fail, the price of Brent may fall to $ 35 a barrel or lower, and the dollar will cost 70-75 rubles.”, – Stated in the review of Sberbank CIB. Similar evaluations were given and analysts Bank of America Merill Lynch and Saxo Bank.

According to Alexander Nazarov from Gazprombank absence of an agreement in Doha would lead to oil price adjustment downward to 40 dollars per barrel. “Holocaust and the collapse of prices will not be, as the market does not rule out the failure of the Doha negotiations”, – he said. According to him, the negotiations will continue, but the parties can come to an agreement on the wording of the document only together. Russia is likely to take the position of an observer and will join the agreement, if it is clear that they will support all the OPEC.

According to the oil and gas analyst Maxim Averbukh, since the first discussion of the “freezing” of production February 16th oil rose in price about 5 dollars. For this Russian time exported about 400 million. Barrels of oil and petroleum products and brought an additional revenue of $ 2 billion. “The Minister of Energy Alexander Novak not only for 2 months insured the country from the drop in oil prices, but also earned her as much as $ 2 billion . In a situation impenetrable Iran’s position and resulting from it the position of Saudi Arabia to achieve more was simply impossible “, – said Averbukh.