The Ministry of Finance expects nedosdachu
If current market conditions, that is, the weakening of the ruble and maintaining oil prices at current levels, the budget losses could reach 500 billion rubles., said Wednesday Siluanov. At about the same amount his department estimates the losses associated with a decrease in the growth rate of the economy and the volume of imports.
1 trillion rubles. possible shortfalls calculated taking into account the weaker ruble compared to the budgeted, explained RBC Deputy Director of long-term strategic planning of the Ministry of Finance Elena Lebedinskaya. “That’s why there is a trillion, and no more – she said. – These estimates – at current prices, if it persists. The course is largely offset by losses in oil and gas, but not completely ».
Economic Development, which is scheduled in December adjust macroeconomic forecast, has not commented on the Ministry of Finance calculations. Own calculations ministry has not yet completed, so refrain from comments, said RBC deputy Alexei Vedev.
The ruble weakened now including due to political factors, and not just because of the price of oil or transfer of securities to the floating exchange rate, says the expert of Economic Expert Group Alexander Suslin. If the exchange rate will return to 40 rubles. per dollar, the evaluation of a trillion “very believable,” she said. But if GDP growth drops to zero, the assessment of possible shortfalls in the $ 1 trillion may be optimistic.
How to take half a trillion
Authorities plan to cover from the Reserve Fund of only 500 billion possible “shortage” in the budget, said Finance Minister. The missing half a trillion can find increasing domestic borrowing and “optimize” costs, says Lebedinskaya. Theoretically it is possible to increase the use of the Reserve Fund, she admits.
Work on possible budget cuts already underway, said on the air “Russia 24″ Head of long-term strategic planning of the Ministry of Finance Maxim Oreshkin. The government set up a commission headed by First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, who “seeks out” opportunities for optimization. Proposals on possible cost reductions will be ready by March, said Oreshkin.
The government will focus primarily on reducing government programs, a federal official said. Require the government can reduce costs and by state-owned companies. Moderate borrowing capacity he also admits: “But they must be reasonable – the president talked about this».
Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that the budget adjustments are not required, at least due to lower oil prices. “Of course, do not need any adjustments,” – he said on Wednesday (quoted by TASS). “According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the decline in oil prices by $ 1 leads ceteris paribus to 70-80 billion rubles. falling revenues of the federal budget, and the depreciation of the ruble against the dollar – to increase federal revenues by 200-250 billion rubles. “, – stated Assistant Minister Elena Lashkina in response to a request RBC. She noticed that the current mechanism of fiscal rules allows, if necessary, use the additional funds from the Reserve Fund to the budget costs.
The alternative of NWF
An alternative source could be the National Welfare Fund (NWF), believes Professor of Economics and Finance International Institute RANHiGS Lyudmila Pronin. Purpose of the Fund until 2015 “actually suspended,” she said, and assistance from the fund today, “ask and sundry”, such as “Rosneft” and Vnesheconombank. In this case, the FNB spend to cover the budget deficit would be more appropriate, according to Pronin.
FNB – “is not an option,” categorical Lebedinskaya of Finance: there can not be the direct costs of the law. The fact that the fund is permitted to use the existing regulations, doubts and other federal official.
Revision costs logical, but it may slow the growth, says Suslin. Capacity borrowing – is also an option, including the introduction of T-bills “on reasonable terms,” the expert said. However, ICT has already made against Alexei Ulyukayev.
The main thing – that the authorities refrained from in order to cover the missing income due to lower real incomes, said Pronin. “I did not like that Siluanov said that would have to tighten their belts. We must do everything so that even at the expense of internal factors are not citizens tighten their belts “, – she said. What not to do in the current environment – so it raise taxes, notes Suslin.
The price of economic warfare
$ 170 billion
Experts HSE, comparing data from two developed CB scenarios of economic development for the next three years (one of them provides for the lifting of sanctions in the third quarter of 2015, the other – keeping them up to 2017), concluded that the Central Bank estimates the total cost of sanctions for the Russian economy $ 170 billion over three years (3% of total GDP over this period).
$ 200 billion
In the spring of this year, the head of the Committee of Civil Initiatives Alexei Kudrin said in an interview with REN TV Russia’s losses compared with the costs of sanctions to the Olympics Sochi. According to his estimates, because of their country in the next two or three years will lose about $ 200 billion. In August, when it became aware of the application of “Rosneft” in the allocation of funds from the National Welfare Fund, he confirmed this assessment. “Request” Rosneft “government 1.5 trillion rubles. confirms my forecast losses of Russia from sanctions. For three years – $ 200 billion. This is the bottom bracket, “- he wrote in Twitter.
€ 98 billion
On such an assessment of losses of Russia from the economic sanctions of the European Union reported the summer close to the authorities of the European Union online edition EUobserver, citing its own sources. This amount is the sum of the losses of € 23 billion in 2014 and € 75 billion in 2015.
350 billion rubles
At the end of September, the head of the IMF mission in Russia Antonio Spilimbergo said that in 2015 Russia will miss GDP growth of 0.5%, or about 350 billion rubles., because of Western sanctions. However, he noted that “the trend of slowing appeared to geopolitical tensions».
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