On Friday, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Stock Exchange historical highs, exceeding the level of 39 rubles ./$ . The ruble has not sustained media pressure – news about the development of the situation around the shares “Bashneft” – to which were added to strengthen the dollar on the world market and the demand for currency by the Russian state-owned banks.
Yesterday the dollar on the Moscow Stock Exchange for the first time in history has risen above the level of 39 rubles ./$ . In the course of the auction rate reached the level of 39.15, after trades entrenched slightly below the daily maximum – at the level of 39.13 rubles ./$ . This value of 65 kopecks. above Thursday’s closing on 72 kop.- values of the end of last week. The euro exchange rate has risen this week only 20 kopecks., To the level of 49.66 rubles. / €. As a result, the value of the currency basket has risen to the level of 43.87 rubles., Which is 48 kopecks. above the close last Friday.
The sharp depreciation of the ruble began on Thursday, after the decision of the Moscow City Court to deny bail under house arrest head of AFK “Sistema” Vladimir Yevtushenko. “Thursday began careful shopping currency after strong sales of the previous day, but after reports that the arrest has not been removed, the currency basket is almost entirely played all loss environment,” – said the chief specialist of Treasury Bank “Revival” Michael Berulava. On Friday morning, the Moscow Arbitration Court arrested the shares of the oil company “Bashneft”, owned by the holding company. According to analysts of UniCredit Bank, the situation around “Bashneft” is questionable, but the overall trend is negative, that puts pressure on the players psychologically stock and currency markets. “Against the backdrop of the deficit of foreign currency liquidity market has become a very” thin “and therefore increase demand for the currency caused a sharp devaluation of the ruble,” – said the head of the Monetary and Financial Department Citibank Denis Korshilov.
Yesterday’s surge in demand provided the Russian investors and predominantly state-owned banks, say market participants. “In the course of trading was noticed a significant demand from state-owned banks, including Sberbank,” – said a trader of Russian bank. According to a trader western bank, the State Bank may accumulate currency by succeeding payments on external syndicated loan. However, a source in the State Bank said: “The Bank does not need to accumulate foreign exchange liquidity, as it has in the required amount at its disposal.” The press service of the Savings Bank failed to promptly respond to the request “b”.
However, the weakening of the ruble does not occur in isolation, but together with the weakening of the currencies of other developing countries, said the head of the department of trade in the foreign exchange and money markets, Credit Suisse bank Dmitry Sinitsyn. According to Bloomberg, since the beginning of the week the ruble has weakened its position relative to the dollar by 1.7% and on this indicator ranked fourth among the 24 currencies of developing countries. Stronger ruble weakened Colombian Peso (a decrease of 2.8%), the Brazilian real (2.6%), Mexican Peso (1.9%). Investors are in dollar-denominated assets in the run-up to minimize the quantitative easing and the beginning of the cycle of rate hikes in the United States. According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR), for the week ending September 24 clients funds focused on developing countries, was taken from them almost $ 600 million, and for two weeks – more than $ 1.6 billion.
In the exceptional situation in the last week were funds focused on Russia, who received a net inflow of $ 197 million – the maximum amount since March of this year. But talk about the return of investors to the Russian market is premature, since the beginning of August their mood changed every week. “Talk about a steady upward trend in demand for ruble assets is not necessary – said the managing director of IG” Trinfiko “Yegor Krotkov.- Background around the Russian assets are now largely negative, so the volatility of the market in the near future will be saved” .
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