Ulyukayev: Russian economy to adapt to the sanctions and low oil prices – BBC Russian

Russian economy has adapted to the sanctions and low oil prices, and the deepest point of the crisis took place in June last year, Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev at the Government Hour in the State Duma.

According to the minister, the Russian economy has not fundamentally, undo whether sanctions this year.

or ten years later the second oil shock, that is, the fall in oil prices in the second half of last year, was less painful for Russian economy, the Minister said. According to him, the economy is easily adapted to the new conditions

“If the first oil shock we experienced during deep devaluation of the national currency -. More than double, at 2.5-fold increase in inflation, the actions of the Bank of Russia, which raised to 17%, and experienced a decline in production to about 4% of GDP, the second oil shock experience a completely different way. and devaluation is extremely small, inflation is not only not increased, but decreased, and we went out today at the level of at least 8 % inflation rate for the corresponding period last year, the key rate has not increased, but decreased for the real economy effects were the most insignificant. “- said Ulyukayev

The lowest crisis point, according to Ulyukayev, came in June last year, . In the eight months since July, economic growth hovered around zero “. Monthly with smooth seasonality from minus 0.1% to plus 0.1% This is a very delicate balance, but we are eight months living in these conditions,”

Ulyukayev said that the crisis can not last long, but the low prices at $ 40-50 per barrel will remain for a longer period.

MED has prepared several scenarios of economic development of Russia in this year. The base with a high probability can be a scenario in which oil will cost $ 35 or $ 40 a barrel, said Ulyukayev.

Now the budget is calculated on the price of $ 50 per barrel. In this case, the rise of GDP was 0.7%. The forecast for GDP growth this year will be reviewed, the minister promised, but did not specify how much.

Over the past year, Russian officials have said that the acute phase of the crisis has passed. In particular, he Ulyukayev said in March 2015, the year that Russia takes place or has already passed the “most acute area”.