The price of oil has exceeded the psychological mark of $ 40 and continues to grow. The boundary was crossed on Monday, quotations rose to $ 41, but on Tuesday the price of a barrel of North Sea oil Brent (it is attached to it the value of contracts for Russian Urals) on the London stock exchange ICE has gone down, but is still above $ 40. 11.50 MSK May futures for Brent traded at $ 40,47.
The increase is related to expectations for the meeting of oil producers (OPEC and countries that are not members of the cartel, including Russia), to be held at the end March in Moscow. Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar in February agreed to freeze production of oil at the level of January. It is assumed that in this way due to the growing demand will be offset by the prevalence of supply over demand (oversupply currently estimated at about 1.5 million barrels per day). This, in turn, will push up oil prices
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The driver of growth is the positive mood of investors and, inspired by reports of freezing the volume of production of “black gold” in Saudi Arabia and Russia. “In recent days, the rapid rise in oil prices, in our view, to a lesser extent caused by a change in fundamentals, and more – the restoration of investor sentiment,” – said Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity markets research Julius Baer, in a conversation with the TV channel CNBC. He was echoed by analysts of the London branch of Barclays, who in his report noted that “investors and traders were looking forward to this chance to cash in on the upcoming rally in the oil market».
«Ads for continuing the second year of massive reductions in capital expenditures and reports of negotiations about the freezing of oil in the countries – members of OPEC, and outside organizations have supported these sentiments “, – stated in the information bulletin of Barclays. However, as said Riker, not jump in prices even says that the market has entered a period of long-term recovery.
Positive impact on the quotation and provide data on the reduction in the US rig. According to information from Baker Hughes, published March 4, number of drilling rigs in the US for the week fell by 13, to 489 units, reaching a nearly six-year low. Over the past year in the country were closed more than 700 installations
«Oil production in the US will definitely continue to fall during the year”, -. James Williams believes economist at the American consulting firm WTRG Economics .
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On the other hand, the rise in prices oil can lead to the reopening of a number of drilling rigs in the US that are currently stopped work due to loss of production. “We’re getting to the line, breaking that we can once again see an increase in the number of drilling rigs. This would counter a restraining effect on oil prices, “-. Said the chief analyst of the Department of commodities in the Norwegian bank SEB Bjarne Shildrop in CNBC comments
If you focus on the $ 41 per barrel such price was the last time in December last year.
The head of the Russian Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov said that at this price the Russian budget in 2016 will miss 2% of GDP, or about 1.6 trillion rubles . (Budget 2016 been drawn up based on the price of a barrel to $ 50).
However, it is a $ 50 target both manufacturers and market experts. The largest oil producers, countries belonging to OPEC, start negotiations with each other on reaching a new threshold on the oil price of $ 50, said the founder of New York-based consultancy PIRA Energy Group Gary Ross in a conversation with Reuters. “Even if it is not officially announced the target price, we can hear this figure in their statements. They are trying to find a new starting point for the commodity market, “-. Said Ross, a well-known fact that in November 2015 predicted the rise in oil prices in 2020 to $ 100 a barrel
On the oil minister of Nigeria last week Emmanuel Kachikvu, talking about the upcoming meeting, said that the purpose of that oil producers have set themselves -. the price per barrel of $ 50
According Kachikvu having such a price, producers “will be happy».
Credit Suisse Bank expert Ian Stewart on Friday also talked about the $ 50 per barrel, and, he said, quotes can reach this level by may. Stewart noted that the oil market has potential for growth, which had previously underestimated
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also last week, it was about $ 50 he said vice-president of the consulting firm IHS Daniel Yergin, who is called “oil guru”. But he believes that the barrel could reach $ 40-50 only by the autumn.
But the price may affect Iranian factor that is ready to freeze production, but require special conditions for themselves. This is due to the fact that during the period of the sanctions that were lifted only in mid-January 2016, Iran in contrast to other countries could increase production and export of oil. Now the Islamic Republic of Iran intends to fight for the lost market share, increasing both production and foreign supply. The main concerns relate to the fact that Iran in an effort to regain market niches will start dumping that pull prices down.
On the other hand, before the experts pointed out that a lot will depend on the rate of increase of production and export of oil from Iran – Iranians ambitious plans that promise to increase exports by 1 million barrels per day in the near future, cause serious doubts, as Iran will need a major investment to restore production
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