Ministry of Economic Development has promised three years of crisis – RBC

Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev Photo: Nikolay ASMOLOVSKY RBC

The Ministry of economic development is preparing a new forecast of socio-economic development of Russia until 2019. In Office believe that oil prices in the years to be low, and the sanctions and kontrsanktsii remain valid

The basic condition for the preparation of the forecast is the price of oil, which, according to MED officials, will remain cheaper than $ 50 per barrel , according to “Vedomosti”. “This is not a forecast, but just some of the conditions for discussion”, – says the federal official. “The Ministry of Finance has calculated the budget and for $ 25, and $ 30, and $ 40 / barrel.” – Points to another federal official

The document “Basic hypothesis forecast” implies the acceleration of global economic growth. developed countries account; preservation of sanctions against Russia and response antisanktsy prior to 2020 g.

In addition, officials believe that the budget will continue to save on social costs. Pensions will be indexed annually to the target rate of inflation – 4%, the achievement of which officials, though do not expect and in 2019. MAYOR These figures mean that for the 2016-2019 biennium in real terms. pensions will decrease by about 10%

A reference “salary decrees” the president will be reduced by 12% the size of the average wage for the economy -. Landmark is updated by the addition of Rosstat, in the calculation of the average salary income from informal employment. This means that the value of the indexation of salaries of teachers, doctors, teachers and other categories of state employees who by decree of the President rapidly increased salary will depend on the situation on the labor market. Indexation of salaries of other state employees, including civil servants, also frozen until the end of 2019, with an annual reduction of their numbers by 5%.

Similarly, for all four years of frozen and accumulative part of the pension.

Budget investment in human capital – health care costs, education and culture – will be maintained in relation to GDP at the current level, the Ministry of Economic Development suggests. This means that they will decline in real terms

The representative of the Economic Development Ministry has called the document “Draft for discussion”:. “This is not a forecast, but the first estimations.” Most likely in the final version of the price of oil will be higher – not 35, and $ 40

The representative of the social Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets refused to comment on the Ministry of Economic Development estimates

You can not have anything more permanent than.. temporary solutions, says the director of the regional program of the Independent Institute of social policy Natalya Zubarevich. Do not have any illusions that the freezing of the funded part is canceled, she said. In order not to lose face because of the inability to perform presidential decrees was coined methodical maneuvers: time is not possible to increase – lower the bar. But the reduction of the public sector, on the contrary, most likely unfeasible, believes Zubarevich, especially in the period before the presidential election, “to make it easier – withdraw allowances, bonus payments. Saving will be the old fashioned way – a decrease in wages. ”