Fitch rating agency revised its outlook on Russia’s GDP in 2016. According to analysts, this figure fell to 1.5%. Previously, Fitch predicted a slight increase in the GDP of Russia
The global forecast, issued March 7, Fitch analysts have predicted that Russia’s GDP will fall by 1.5% in 2016. In December, the rating agency, on the contrary, predicted next year’s GDP growth of 0,5%.
This forecast, Fitch analysts explain the decline in oil prices, which led to a reduction in corporate profits and provokes tightening of fiscal policy. This indicates that the high interest rates and falling real incomes put pressure on consumption
Fitch also assumes that the average price of Brent crude in 2016 will be $ 35 per barrel and in 2017 -. $ 45 . This is lower than the December forecast of the rating agency. Analysts explained the change in his position by the fact that oil production in January OPEC countries exceeded their expectations.
In addition, the pressure on the world economy will slowdown of China’s economy (6.2% instead of 6.3% the previous forecast).
March 5, Moody’s put the sovereign credit rating of Russia, located on the level of Ba1, on review for possible reduction.
Video: RBC
«during the review Moody’s will assess the impact of a further decline in oil prices, which are projected to Moody ‘s, will remain at a low level for several years, the state of the Russian economy and the balance of payments, including a lack of financing options for state obligations” – the report said the agency
at the end of February 2015, Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of Russia to Ba1 with a negative outlook, this level is considered “garbage”.. A month before its rating to below investment grade (BB +) downgraded agency Standard & amp; Poor’s. Fitch from mid-January 2015 holds Russia’s rating at BBB-, or on the brink of “junk”.
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