Moscow. March, 3rd. INTERFAX.RU – New NBA Draft forecast of social and economic development of Russia until 2019, which prepares the Ministry of Economic Development (MED), laid low oil prices during this period and the extension of sanctions and kontrsanktsy, <-! Noindex -> write “Vedomosti”
The price of oil – the main condition for the preparation and forecasting, and budget -. all four years will be less than $ 50 / barrel, the ministry suggests. In the basic version of its average price in 2016 – $ 35 / barrel in the next three years -. $ 40, $ 45 and $ 45 / bbl. respectively. In the conservative variant oil is cheaper than in the baseline, to $ 10. Optimistic (target) option coincides with the base.
This is not a forecast, and some of the conditions for the discussion, said the federal official. The Ministry of Finance has calculated the budget and for $ 25, and $ 30, and $ 40 / bbl., Said another federal official.
“The basic hypothesis of the forecast” provide for the preservation of all the four years of the prevailing external conditions and measures 2016 decisions in fiscal policy. Thus, the Ministry of Economic Development suggests the acceleration of world economic growth at the expense of developed countries; preservation of sanctions against Russia and response antisanktsy prior to 2020. Limited access to capital markets and reduce the outflow of capital – from $ 35 billion in 2016 to $ 15 billion in 2019, according to Ministry of Economic Development
The budget will continue to save on social costs.. Pensions, as in 2016, will be indexed annually to inflation target – 4%. However, the Ministry of Economic Development expects that this goal will not be achieved either in 2017 as the central bank expects, or even in 2019: by the end of this year it will decrease to 7.7% in a year – to 6.2%, by the end of 2018 – to 5.5% and remain at that level for the end of 2019. This means that in real terms over the four years of the pension will be reduced by approximately 10%.
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