regulator left it unchanged because of the speculators and volatile oil prices
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The key rate at 11% is retained in the summer of last year. At the next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors, it was decided to leave it at its current level. Experts and market participants believe that the Central Bank is insured against risks. The real sector of the economy in 2015 has accumulated liquidity of 7.5 trillion rubles, and in no hurry to use it. Barrier became a weak ruble and cheap oil. Those dogmas uses CB: if the funds have business there, but to leave them he was afraid, so he does not need loans. And if you lower the rate, the profits from loans cheapened derive speculators.
Photo: Alex Gelder
The key rate has not changed, although the question of changing it entered the agenda of the meeting of the directors of the Central Bank for the fourth time since August last year. Until now, it was possible to dream of such stability. In December 2014 mega its sharply increased from 10.5% to 17%. This decision was caused by the large-scale collapse of the ruble – a day his rate dropped from 64.45 to 58.18 rubles per dollar
Then, the size of the key rate gradually decreased.. Despite the fact that the main indicators of the domestic economy is poor. In 2015, Russia’s GDP fell by 3.7%, real wages fell by 9.7%. The outflow of capital at least three times and fell from $ 154 billion to $ 57 billion, but still remained at a high level. Investments in fixed assets decreased by almost 8,5%.
But the Central Bank rate is still reduced. According to experts, this was due to business needs for additional investment. According to the analyst “Finam” Timur Nigmatullin, it is natural. Many Russian companies are closed for Western financial institutions. We had to find the money in the country.
The loans were taken, but less. Profit of the Russian banking sector over the past year fell three times, up to 192 billion rubles. Arrears increased by 2 times and exceeded 1 trillion rubles. Financiers immediately estimate that reserves of banks in terms of potential losses may exceed the profits of their institutions, and began to more closely pay attention to the potential borrowers.
This was done for several reasons. On the one hand, as the head of the “Finance and Economics”, Institute of Contemporary Development Nikita Maslennikov, in the past year as a whole real sector of the Russian economy was able to accumulate about 7.5 trillion rubles (about half of the Russian budget revenues).
“These funds could be directed to development. But the businessmen prefer to keep them in the accounts, rather than spend, “- said the expert
In other words, entrepreneurs are afraid of the same thing, and the Central Bank.. After taking money, they can put their job at risk. “In fact, any company expects business in the years to come. With the current unstable ruble, as well as fluctuating oil prices forecasting for such time that a very difficult “, – said Nikita Maslennikov
That is why, in his opinion, most of the remaining afloat entrepreneurs prefer to keep your hand. on the purse, without getting into it for no reason.
in this situation, the Central Bank buys time. “For a long time the Bank of Russia to make a choice between reducing inflation and stimulating economic growth. By reducing the rate, it sacrifices economic growth, increasing it – reduces the number of available consumer credit, which is not always helpful to the economy as a whole “, – says Nigmatulin
In other words, the balance of the Central Bank.. Firstly, the business does not die and does not increase the rate. Many of the business, even at 11% per annum (in private banks, this strap is on average 17%) apply for a loan. Secondly, it does not allow fasting to end users, which is not so long ago zaryatsya on cheap borrowed money. By the way, borrowers in this category is less and less. The number of unemployed in the country increased by 7.6% last year, exceeding 4.6 million people. During 2015 (February to February) consumer loan portfolio of the 200 largest banks fell by almost 460 billion rubles. In January, he was reduced to 440 billion rubles. At the same time increased the delay from 7% to 9.9% (up to 931 billion rubles).
Soon nobody will give credit, joke experts. Some truth in this. Those who have the means, they (at least in the credit money) is not needed. Those who need it, to take a loan can not
the CB must choose between two evils:. Any one help, or give others a chance. “While there is no stable solution on the measures the impact on oil prices (meeting of independent producers with OPEC on the issue is scheduled for April 17 -.« MK »), there is no confidence in the ruble exchange rate. The Central Bank will continue to take a wait and see attitude. However, if there was confidence at least on one issue, the Central Bank rate could be reduced to 9.5-10% in the second half. To reduce the rate now – allow speculators to cash in on it, whereas before the real money still can not reach, “- says Nikita Maslennikov
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