Russia and Saudi Arabia will bring the price of oil to $ 60 – Moskovsky Komsomolets

But only if you agree with Iran

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There is every reason to believe that in the coming months, oil quotes confident crawl up and reach up to $ 60 per barrel. Justification – Moscow and Riyadh signed an agreement to stabilize the market of “black gold”. At the Saudis, as well as we, and many other producing countries, due to low oil prices, budgets are cracking at the seams. What you need to do to achieve this growth, not difficult to guess – to conduct a “freezing” of production to create artificial scarcity. To this ready and Russia, and Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC countries, for instance, Algeria and Venezuela. But there is a barrier – Iran, which after the abolition of Western sanctions against his rapidly increasing production and does not move up quotations. Will it be possible to persuade Tehran to “freeze” the prey, it will become clear on September the International Energy Forum in Algiers.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

The signing of the agreement on the stabilization of the oil market between Russia and Saudi Arabia, although it became a sensation, but did not sound like thunder from a clear sky. Representatives of the relevant departments of Moscow and Riyadh have repeatedly held informal meetings among themselves, but the specific contracts was not.

Now, some of what the specifics are. “Our coordination will be critical to ensure stability in the market. In fact, we are opening a new era of cooperation, our energy cooperation enters into a deeper and close cooperation, strategic partnership “, – said Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak

The first meeting of a bilateral working group on oil and gas cooperation should. held in October. But it is clear: it is assumed to make recommendations for joint action and joint action to ensure the stability and predictability of the oil market. Ministers of both countries agreed to act jointly or in cooperation with other producers of oil.

But no one doubts that the main goal, the achievement of which devote themselves to both sides, will be co-ordination with other major oil producers of the agreement on the joint “freezing” production at a certain level.

Yes, no one admits that this is the main question, which is on the agenda, not only Russia, the lion’s share of that budget provides revenues from exports, “black gold”, but almost all oil countries.

The fact that the “freezing” of production would be the best solution, said the other day, Vladimir Putin. Russian President echoed Alexander Novak, who also believes that the “freeze” a positive impact on the oil market. Many foreign colleagues Nowak agreed to take this step. For example, Algeria’s Energy Minister Noureddine Buterfa called the current price of a barrel of “unacceptable”. In his opinion, it should be in the range of $ 50-60. In fact, it is transparent hints at the production limit. Two hands in favor of this decision voted Venezuela. On the necessity of the said United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

At first glance, the “pros” and “freezing” of production is the inevitable way out of the current stalemate in the oil market. But not all so simple. Against such a measure in favor of Iran, part of OPEC and is the second representative of the production level of the cartel. After the cancellation of sanctions against Iran (which, in particular, concluded that the country was forbidden to export oil to the US, EU and Japan), Iranian companies have significantly increased production. This was one of the reasons why the price of “black gold” is not kept at least at the level mentioned by the Algerian Minister of Energy. And to stop the Iranians are not going to. They want to increase the daily production up to the level which they had before the introduction of sanctions. This 4 million barrels. Now the Iranians mined per day to 3.8 million barrels. two or three months is required to achieve the desired Tehran.

In theory, stood up for the “freezing” is suitable. Ministers of countries – major oil producers must negotiate on this issue in September at the International Energy Forum in Algiers. But there will be an informal meeting of the parties. Finally seal the documents stamps planned for the November meeting of OPEC in Vienna. By this time Iran will be able to ramp up production to a level dosanktsionnogo excuses and Tehran will not.

So what are the chances that “freezing” happens, and prices will rise, still exist. While waiting for the final meeting between Alexander Novak and Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia Khalid Al-Falih price of “black gold” has increased significantly (by more than 4%) and almost reached the mark of $ 50. But then, when the market learned the details of the Russian-Saudi agreement that is, the market realized that it was rather a framework agreement and is not of a specific nature, quotes, steel and adjusted to the end of the day fell to $ 47,5.

it seems that to find out what will be the price of oil next year will have to wait at least September, when the main earners of the world will meet in Algeria. But, most likely, have to endure until November, when the representatives of OPEC will meet in Vienna.