S & P: Russia can become a leader among the debtors because of the aging of the population – Rosbalt.RU

 Russia risks in 35 years to become a leader on the level of leverage, which can reach 262% of GDP, in the absence of solution to the problem of an aging population and rising social expenditures. It is reported by the international rating agency S & amp;. P

S & amp; P predicts that the total population of Russia will decrease by 10% in 2050 to 129 million people, the proportion of older people aged over 65 will rise to 21% with 13% of working – will fall to 61% from 70%

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 According to the agency, while maintaining a policy of share of “age” spending will grow steadily over the next 35 years to 19% of GDP in 2050 from 13% in 2015.

«This trend points to the deterioration of the budgetary position of Russia in the long term. Our analysis shows that in the absence of expenditure containment policies and structural reforms, the volume of the state debt to Russia could rise to 262% of GDP in 2050 and is one of the highest in the world “, – the report says S & amp; P

This will put downward pressure on the ratings in the medium and long term, which in this scenario will remain in the speculative category during the whole period up to 2050.

 At the same time, they noted in the S & amp; P, such a scenario is unlikely, and the government is not likely to allow the budget deficit and level of debt burden to go out of control. However, the agency said, the recent actions of the authorities, who are three years in a row seized citizens’ pension savings, are not conducive to the stability of the pension system.

As noted to Reuters, raising the retirement age would help solve the problem of deficit of the pension system and reduce the burden on debt. Officials of the financial and economic bloc of the government for several years offered to begin a phased increase in the retirement age in Russia, but the country’s leadership says that the time has not yet come.

According to sources involved in the discussions, in fact, the authorities, including the President and the prime minister, resigned to the necessity of raising the retirement age, but are ready to discuss it after the presidential elections in 2018, sums up the agency.