Experts estimated the loss of the Western countries with sanctions of $ 60.2 billion – RBC

Photos: Fame Alakhov / TASS

Lost countries to support sanctions against Russia, were $ 60.2 billion, experts say the French CEPII. A large part of the losses came in the products, which fell under the Russian embargo

The countries that supported sanctions against Russia, received less income from exports by $ 60.2 billion since the beginning of 2014 to June of 2015 , says “Kommersant” referring to research Centre d`Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII, the French research center on the global economy). The authors report in their study used the monthly trade data at the country level

In the money shortfall benefit maximum from German suppliers (about $ 830 million per month, or 27% of the volume of losses), Ukraine -. $ 450 million as well as Poland, the Netherlands, France and Japan ($ 200 million).

as the report notes that as a result of the study revealed that most of the losses (82%) has fallen not on products, which hit by the Russian embargo. “This result suggests that the majority of losses occurred not because of Russian kontrsanktsy, but due to the sanctions of the West», – CEPII experts say. Analysts have concluded that this “collateral damage” can be explained by the fact that financial sanctions have led to problems with the involvement of trade finance under the supplies to Russia.

«We believe that any consumer boycotts, ie a sudden change in the preferences or imaginary country risk can not explain the losses “, – stated in the CEPII report

Most of the total amount of losses (77%) fell on the EU countries.. Before the crisis, Russia accounted for 2.3% of exports to support sanctions countries, as Russian exports to them amounted to 63.8% of all external supply, says “Kommersant” referring to the CEPII research data. During the sanctions the average probability of supply decreased by 8-14%, the cost – on 3,5-7,5%

At the beginning of the deterioration of relations (between February and July 2014) was a drop in supplies. average of 14.6%, while the rate of the ruble against the dollar during this period decreased by only 6%. After the introduction of the Russian embargo, since August 2014, deliveries fell by an average of 12.9%, the supply of goods of sanctions fell by about 90% since August 2014.

As the “Kommersant” notes, according to the FCS, the first half of 2014 imports from the EU fell by 6.1%, whereas in the whole of all countries – by 4.8%, in general, for the year – by 11.7% and 9.2% respectively. In 2015, the fall in imports from the EU amounted to 40.2%, exports to the background in energy prices decline decreased by 31%, decreased by $ 64 billion in cash imports from the EU for two years.

The sanctions against Russia were introduced by Western countries following the accession of the Crimea and the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine. Initially, they were distributed to individual physical and legal entities, but that has been extended to energy, defense and financial sectors. In response to the limitations imposed kontrsanktsii Moscow, in particular, the food embargo in August 2014. June 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the ban on the import of certain products until 31 December 2017, 1 July sanctions against Russia for six months, extended the European Union.

In August last year, representatives of the European farmers’ association Sopa-Sogeca stated that damage to farmers from the Russian embargo amounted to € 5,5 billion. last July, representatives of the Austrian Institute of economic research (WIFO) estimated that EU countries risk losing out to the anti-Russian sanctions and Moscow’s response to approximately € 100 billion and more than 2 million jobs . In May this year of the analytical center experts estimate at the government, that damages the supplier countries on the Russian embargo of the product amounted to $ 9.3 billion. This estimate does not take into account the loss of the Turkish and Ukrainian suppliers.