According to the US Global Investors, one of the far-reaching consequences Brexit investment fund report could be a revision of Europe sanctions policy in relation to Russia.
Structure of the Russian exports
Almost all EU member states agree that the Russian President Vladimir Putin benefited from Brexit. United Kingdom, an ardent opponent to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, played an important role in establishing sanctions against the financial and energy sectors of the country, as well as against the Russian defense industry, two years ago.
Several EU countries, including Austria and Hungary , expressed interest in the abolition or at least mitigate the sanctions, since they can not afford to stop trade relations with Russia. Countries that have faced difficulties, lost business opportunities, such as Finland, Poland and the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), face considerable difficulties.
French Parliament recently adopted a resolution to persuade Brussels to lift all sanctions.
The upper house of the Italian Parliament approved a resolution against any automatic renewal of sanctions. Given that the United Kingdom will not participate in making decisions in the future, Moscow will have a chance to achieve easing of sanctions.
In the long term it will be a good sign for the economy of Russia, which has suffered not only by sanctions, but also from the fall in oil prices over the past two years. In 2013, energy products accounted for 70% of total exports, with a third of that occupied oil exports. What played into the hands of oil producers, since the weakening of the ruble, which has reduced labor costs by making exports more competitive
Now, experts argue about what has caused greater damage:. Sanction or fall of Brent crude. As previously mentioned, there is a clear correlation between oil prices and the ruble.
Dynamics of Russian export in 2012-2015.
But the sanctions have had an impact. And a considerable impact. According to the IMF, trade restrictions have affected the decline of Russia’s GDP by 1.5% in 2015. Economic Expert Group considers that in the period between 2014 and 2017. international sanctions and falling oil prices in Russia will cost a whopping $ 600 billion. Much of this loss is due to capital flight, though, since the sanctions were announced, capital flight occurred relatively slowly. Renaissance Capital believes that this year the country will leave the $ 45 billion, compared with $ 64 billion in 2015 and $ 125 billion in 2014. Exports also struck. In April, it dropped to $ 21 billion, which is 28% lower than a year earlier.
Given that the United Kingdom will be officially out of the EU for two years, the lifting of sanctions will not happen in the near future. For EU officials voted for the extension of sanctions for another six months last week. Many experts, including Putin, doubt whether the change Brexit Russia’s relations with the European trading bloc.
Nevertheless, some EU Member States is increasing pressure in order to force them to abandon or at least to mitigate the sanctions. And after the United Kingdom, an advocate of sanctions will come from the EU, the opportunity to review the conditions of sanctions can provide earlier than expected.
It should be noted in the Analytical credit rating agencies (ACRA) also believe that Brexit – this undoubted success for Russia.
“Russia of the British referendum results may also play into the hands. After all, the UK is one of the most active supporters of the preservation of sanctions against Russia. If the kingdom will lose the right to vote in the EU, it may become easier to convince eventually abandon from sanctions those countries which do not in awe of such a policy toward Russia, “- said the agency’s report.
No comments:
Post a Comment