Statement about the risks of excessive strengthening of the ruble did not attempt to influence the Central Bank, President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with Bloomberg. According to him, the floating exchange rate in the long term to continue
Made in July, a statement about the risks of excessive strengthening of the ruble, which market participants interpreted as an intention to signal the authorities to keep strengthening the national currency, there was no attempt to influence the central bank, said the president Vladimir Putin, in an interview with Bloomberg.
he said that the exchange rate should correspond to the level of economic development. “I keep in touch with the board and the chairman of the Board of the Central Bank, but I will never give them directives. And if I say that the ruble is too stronger, I’m not saying that the Central Bank of the wrong attitude “-. Putin said the agency
In mid-July, the president at a meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev drew attention to the risks associated with the growth of the ruble, and the prime minister offered to consider further measures in this regard. Shortly before that, in early July, Bloomberg experts called ruble hinder the growth of the Russian economy: according to them, the strong ruble has a negative impact on the financial performance of Russian companies
Shortly after Putin’s statement on “pereukreplenie” ruble have and. presidential aide Andrei Belousov, explaining that such a trend is “working in the red”: reduces revenues and increases the budget problems, reduces the competitiveness of the Russian industry and agriculture, devaluing the task of import substitution, for the tendency of slowing export growth. Then he said that for the correction of the ruble can be used a number of tools, the choice of which is for the Central Bank and the government
Putin’s statement had a significant impact on the foreign exchange market:. In the evening on July 19, the dollar and the euro rose by about 50 cop. The next day, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the strengthening of the ruble, although it has a positive side, requires “fine tuning that is necessary to think in advance and implement.” Central Bank then announced that he intends to have no effect on the ruble, and to abandon the floating exchange rate, to which he moved in late 2014.
Putin’s words that the government, saying the excessive growth of the ruble, not trying thus influence the Central Bank, a positive signal for the market, as a ituatsiya when someone besides the Central Bank is trying to influence the course or to shift it to the side or the other, creates an element of uncertainty and may contribute to volatility in the market and uncertainty in general, says the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik. “When the market has an understanding of how and on what factors depends on the exchange rate, which reduces the risks and to some extent makes it possible to better predict the situation from the point of view of those factors, which affect the course”, – he said RBC. According to him, the president explanations are also important to understand that the central bank is independent in the conduct of monetary policy. It is also a factor, which suggests the possibility of the Central Bank to focus on the inflation component (in the targeted inflation). “This strengthens the possibility of achieving the goals for inflation, since their achievement requires the independence of the Central Bank in the conduct of monetary policy and the abandonment of attempts to reach any accord with exchange rate targets,” – said he
Applications. putin, will not have a major impact on the movement of the ruble, says a senior economist for Russia and CIS Dmitry Polevoy ING. “For the exchange rate corresponds to the central bank. Despite the fact that the government may have their own views on the course, while the Central Bank policy of no active intervention occurs. The President is still leaning toward the position that the Central Bank has independent and that he makes decisions. And as time has shown, these solutions largely are correct, at least from the point of view of course, “- he RBC said
Economic Development Ministry forecast in early August that in the second half of the ruble will continue to strengthen due. the global environment and enhance the investment attractiveness of the national currency. MER predicts an average annual rate at 67.2 rubles. per dollar. Day September 2nd at the Moscow Stock Exchange the dollar was worth 65.8 rubles.
Against the background of global political risks, such as the situation in Turkey and the UK out of the EU, and ultra-low bond yields in developed countries, investors have started to invest in riskier and profitable assets, including the ruble. In mid-July, Credit Suisse analysts called ruble “the most attractive currencies of developing countries” with the current oil prices (around $ 47 per barrel).
ruble will continue to swim
Putin said that the ruble float will remain in the long term. “As a relatively weak ruble, of course, you need to take advantage of it. We believe that these are Russian producers, and working for us abroad. We’ll also consider how their producers. And we will treat you this way “- he said at a meeting with foreign investors in Vladivostok [quoted by Reuters].
However, according to Putin, Russia should focus not on the current exchange rate differences, and the fundamentals of its economy. “Because we have a floating exchange rate today. There is also a big plus … there are certain difficulties. But we have taken a decision, and you should know that these solutions were held for a long time, “- quoted by his agency
According to the president, continue the free movement of capital.. He confirmed that in 2015 and 2014 proposed administrative restrict the movement of capital flows, but stressed that this does not happen.
«Yes, we are aware that there is such an administrative way of capital export restrictions, including restrictions his movements, but in the medium term, not to mention the more remote, we understand that it would be harmful, and therefore we do not do this “- he explained his position
According to Yaroslav Lisovolik of Eurasia. development Bank, the application for maintaining a floating exchange rate and capital account have a positive impact on market sentiment: to reduce risks, particularly for portfolio investors and for those who operate in the currency market.
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